Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

June 14 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Today's interesting charts

There are some promising developments to illustrate and also discuss at the end of this section.

David Fuller's view Australia's AS51 (weekly & daily) rebounded following a further test of the March low today and the decline from the April high is at least temporarily overstretched. A close beneath 4500 would be required to question short-term scope for a further recovery but a break in the progression of lower rally highs is needed to indicate more than a temporary rebound.

Australia's 10-yr bond futures have lost some upside momentum recently and the 2-month rally looks overextended. A close beneath 94.75 would confirm an upside failure and scope for an additional retracement of those gains.

Germany's DAX (weekly & daily) has shown overall relative strength, steadied above the psychological 7000 region recently and is still above the rising 200-day moving average. A close beneath 7000 would now be required to indicate an additional retracement of gains since the March low.

USA's S&P 500 (weekly & daily) has steadied above its MA following six consecutive week's to the downside. Today's upward dynamic indicates potential for at least a technical rally and a close beneath 1265 would now be required to indicate scope for a further test of the March low at 1250.

USA's 30-yr Treasury bond futures (weekly & daily) saw a big downward dynamic today, reaffirming resistance from the recent highs and closing beneath most of the range lows. A new closing high for the year would now be required to offset current scope for an additional retracement of gains since the April low.

Conclusion - A steady decline by many stock market indices, including some evidence of capitulation selling, has created a short-term oversold condition. Technical rallies are now likely but these will need to break the progressions of lower rally highs, where evident, to indicate that significant levels of support have been reached.

Following an overextended rally, loss of upside momentum and the biggest downward dynamic since January 4th, T-bond futures look very susceptible to further weakness. Rallies in long-dated bond futures for other countries look similarly overstretched.



Back to top