Tim Price: Telling tales about money
Comment of the Day

March 30 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Tim Price: Telling tales about money

My thanks to the author for his refreshingly iconoclastic and often witty letter, published by PFP Wealth Management. Here is a brief sample:
Screenwriter William Goldman famously began his autobiography, 'Adventures in the Screen Trade', with three telling words: Nobody Knows Anything. The same logic would seem to apply to much conventional reporting of the financial markets. Any investor looking for informed analysis of market developments can therefore save themselves a few minutes every day by choosing not to read any of the 'Companies and Markets' section of the FT, which typically constitutes a fantastic piece of fiction. If there is a more thankless task in finance than trying to explain why certain markets did what they did yesterday, we don't know what it is. (Unless it's working in the PR department at Goldman Sachs.)

But as Soc Gen's Dylan Grice has frequently pointed out, human beings are suckers for stories. We seek meaning from just about everything, and financial markets are no exception. Why else would otherwise rational people shell out £2.50 every weekday just to read a selection of vapid and contradictory speculations about recent market price action ?

At the risk of going out on a limb, here is our own inherently subjective 'take' on the current market environment. Investors seem to believe that the euro zone debt metastasis has gone into remission. There is an uneasy calm to both equity and bond markets - it feels like the calm before the storm. Gold prices have softened, offering investors yet another second chance to get back on board what is perhaps the most compelling form of money- and portfolio insurance available. And Goldman Sachs are launching a muppet hunt across their internal emails.

David Fuller's view I remain a long-term bull of gold (weekly & daily) but previous peaks in this secular bull cycle have been followed by corrective phases of approximately eighteen months, so we may have to be patient. Meanwhile, I will attempt to trade gold by buying on dips.

Apple's accelerated uptrend (weekly & daily) is beginning to look tired and this degree of overextension relative to the 200-day MA can only end in mean reversion. Apple is the key variable for the Nasdaq 100 Index (weekly & daily) which is also due for a reaction and consolidation in coming weeks.

US T-Bond futures (weekly & daily) are beginning to encounter resistance beneath their top formation, following the recent technical rally and JGBs (weekly & daily) should follow this lead and trend lower before long.

Corn (weekly & daily) was limit up today as the USDA significantly lowered its revised estimate of carryover supplies, vindicating John Macintosh's forecasts in the process.

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