Japan's economic problems are serious and getting worse. Foremost among them is the crushing burden of government debt.

Japan's ratio of government debt to gross domestic product, currently about 2.28, is by far the highest in the industrial world, almost double that of even Greece and Italy, and steadily growing. Already, the combined costs of interest on that debt and social security are approximately equal to total government tax revenue.

Japan's trade balance is about to go negative for the first time since 1980. Land values andNikkei stock values have fallen to about 30 percent of 1989 levels. Now, educated young Japanese women are emigrating, Japanese companies are shifting production overseas (even to the U.S.), national politics are in gridlock (six prime ministers in the past five years), and last year Japan experienced its first mass street protests in decades.

The economic troubles are symptoms of at least three sets of deeper social problems. Regardless of what policies Japan now adopts, its troubles can only increase unless those social problems are solved. While all three of these also beset other industrial societies, certain local attitudes make them more severe in Japan.

Throughout the industrial world, birth rates are falling, and fewer people are marrying. Japan's rate (7.31 births per year per 1,000 people), already the world's lowest, is still dropping. If its rate of decrease over the past two years is extrapolated, it reaches zero by 2017. Naturally, this dire outcome won't actually happen, but the calculation does emphasize that the problem is increasing.

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Married women tend to manage the household finances and take care of both their own and their husbands' parents, and many of them now swear they will be the last generation to be saddled with those burdens. Career women, who find strength in their education, jobs and earning power, are capable of supporting themselves in the style to which they aspire, and are buying condominiums and planning for their own retirements. If they do want to marry, they find that their age is an obstacle, because Japanese men over the age of 40 want much younger women. If they do want children, Japanese societal support for working mothers is low. Hence they either forgo children, or leave the workforce or even leave Japan, and that represents a big loss of human capital for the country.

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But numbers alone don't indicate the extent of the problems. After all, the percentage of the population over 65 in other First World countries is between 14 percent and 20 percent. What makes the problem so serious in Japan is the country's refusal to do what other countries have done: admit massive immigration of younger people from overseas. It is very difficult to immigrate to Japan, and (having immigrated) even harder to obtain citizenship. Japan is the world's most homogeneous large country.

David Fuller's view I have always found much to admire about Japan, from its art and cuisine to the amazing industrial prowess and exemplary manners. And who could forget the quiet dignity shown by Japanese survivors of the devastating Fukushima tsunami.

I visited Japan three times during the height of its economic prowess from 1987 to 1989. The rise and rise of industrial Japan seemed unstoppable as it virtually wiped out the USA's white goods and consumer electronics industries, while producing cars with which Detroit struggled to compete.

And everyone in Japan played what became for a brief period in 1989, the world's biggest stock market in capitalisation terms. On a memorable weekend trip to a spa, Iain Little and I were hoping for a late lunch and had to persuade the chef to put down the heaviest and most elaborate book of price charts that I have ever seen.

Tokyo, as you might expect, exhibited signs of a classic bubble, from the bustle and extensive nightlife of Tokyo, which I quickly learned to avoid, to the seemingly endless traffic jams. Most alarmingly, at a banquet following my presentation to an analytical society, brokers high on Saki detailed, in response to my question on methodology, how they quietly amassed big holdings in key shares with the help of smaller associated firms over a period of weeks, before creating momentum moves by recommending and parcelling out shares, first to their in-house funds, then favoured institutional clients and finally retail customers. One did not want to be at the end of that chain and the main indicator brokers followed, not surprisingly, was momentum.

Tokyo was also the most chauvinistic city in a developed country that I have seen. Educated women wanted to work for foreign rather than Japanese firms. Also, TCS was a challenge because Socratic Q&A presentation style was greeted with quiet alarm and deference to the senior Japanese male in the room, quite unlike the participation of Japanese delegates living in any other country.

Fast forward to the present and with few exceptions in recent decades, waiting for Japan's recovery seems like Waiting for Godot. I have been encouraged by sporadic BoJ intervention to weaken the yen (shown inversely against USD - historic, weekly & daily), plus the inflation target of 1 percent. However, Mr Shirakawa at the BoJ is clearly neither on side with the National Diet of Japan nor with corporate exporters. He seems determined to preserve purchasing power for Japan's increasingly elderly savers. While laudable, this is not helping the economy and stock market to recover.

Mr Shirakawa's term in charge of the BoJ does not expire until April 8th 2013. While we can expect a further power struggle, signs that the government and corporate leaders were gaining the upper hand would be a rally from ¥80 and the 200-day moving average by the USD against the yen. Similarly, the Topix Banks Index (weekly & daily) needs to rebound from its MA, having retraced over half of this year's rally. Banks usually lead at key turning points. Another lead indicator is the Topix 2nd Section Index (weekly & daily). Japan was closed today but it had a bad day yesterday and the 2nd Section needs a sustained break above 2500 to complete a multiyear base. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index (weekly & daily) has returned to its MA and failure to hold here would further delay recovery scope.

Fundamentally, Japan is cheap on some measures, mainly book value, and should participate in the Wall Street and ASEAN-led cyclical bull trend. Meanwhile, we are still Waiting for Godot, in the form of Mr Shirakawa or perhaps his successor.

Here is a recent, interesting and related article by Henny Sender for the Financial Times. I do not agree with the conclusion because where Japan has struggled to pull out of deflation, the Fed and BoE have been much more aggressive with QE and sporadic inflationary pressures are emerging.