Latest census data from around the world suggests that human population will peak at around 9bn in the 2050s, almost half a century sooner than generally anticipated. In our view, global fertility will fall to the replacement rate within fifteen years. Population may keep growing for a few more decades because of momentum from the age structure and rising longevity but, reproductively speaking, our species should no longer be expanding. This would be a major turning point in the history of the human race.

Birth rates have been low in developed countries for some time but they are now plunging in developing countries. The Chinese, Russians and Brazilians are no longer replacing themselves while the Indians are having fewer children. Moreover, the skewed gender ratio in giants China and India imply that their reproductive capacity is significantly lower than headline fertility numbers suggest.

For most major economies, the workforce will be either stable or falling over the next three decades. East Asian countries like China, Japan and South Korea will suffer sharp declines. In contrast, India will enjoy workforce growth into the 2040s. This will have important implications for the economic geography of the 21st century.

Aging societies will respond by extending working lives. Many readers of this report will be both healthy and working at the age of seventy.

Eoin Treacy's view This report offers a common sense perspective on population growth projections. However, even this conservative estimate of 9 billion people by 2050 will require considerably more food production. Agriculture has always been subject to weather conditions and the inclement environment of the last 18 months has contributed, among other factors, to higher food prices globally.

In the last year agricultural commodities such as corn, soybeans, cotton and live cattle have broken long-term inflation adjusted downtrends. While volatility is inevitable with anything so tied to weather conditions, the likelihood of a higher price structure being sustained for food over the medium to long-term has increased significantly.

At the recent Sydney Chart Seminar a New Zealand farmer told me that only a few years ago he had been staying up nights trying to figure out how to squeeze an extra few cents out of the cost of production so that his farm could remain viable. Today, he said that milk and wool prices are the best they have seen in decades. He attested to a sense of trepidation among farmers that the good times won't last.

This is notable because I remember having the exact same conversation with an orange farmer in Orlando in 2004, an Australian coal miner at a Chart Seminar in 2008 and a Greek ship owner at the same seminar. The people who survive lengthy bear markets are conditioned to have low expectations.

However, the demand side of the pricing equation is changing rapidly. The world's population has increased substantially and, critically, many more people can afford to increase their calorie in take. It might not be evident at present but a major effort to increase food production will be required over the next few decades. This should be a bullish environment for farmers.