The next question is how far the Egypt effect will spread. Among majority-Muslim countries, Turkey and Indonesia have demonstrated effective self-governance in recent years. Adding a potentially democratic Egypt, whose 80 million citizens represent a quarter of the roughly 300 million in the Arabic-speaking world, in our view means the next few years could witness considerable social change. Clearly, since we did not foresee these events, we can claim no special insight. However, we think economics will play a significant role. In our view, the roughly 25% unemployment rate among those under 30 and the apparent worthlessness of higher education seemed to be a significant contributor to the desire for change. A socially repressive regime that is able to deliver economic prosperity is likely to have a much longer shelf life. This, we think it is premature to expect significant change in wealthy Saudi Arabia or high growth China, but we would not be surprised to see change in those countries where economic mismanagement has occurred. One pivotal country to watch will be Iran. Since its 'Green Revolution' was suppressed two years ago, simmering tensions could reignite a civil rights movement there, and the resolve of its rulers to continue to squash dissent will likely be tested.

David Fuller's view This assessment makes sense to me. Among countries likely to experience significant political dissent over the medium term, Iran is the most important by far, and not just because of its oil wealth. Iran's autocratic theocracy has regional ambitions; it will soon be a nuclear power, to general concern and it is loathed by a majority of its population. Both Iran's middle class and crucially, its military will have learned a lot from Egypt's Revolution.

The question is whether or not Iran's government crumbles from within, as rulers die or are replaced, or if a re-energised 'Green Revolution' can succeed with less opposition from security forces and the military.

This issue of The Weekly View also contains some interesting comments on inflation.