The US is facing a dollar collapse by the end of 2021 and an over 50% chance of a double-dip recession, economist Stephen Roach says
Comment of the Day

October 16 2020

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

The US is facing a dollar collapse by the end of 2021 and an over 50% chance of a double-dip recession, economist Stephen Roach says

This article by Shalini Nagarajan Business Insider may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Additionally, Roach said, new COVID-19 infections and higher mortality rates must be part of assessing the risk of an aftershock, Roach said.

"As we head into flu season with the new infection rates moving back up again, with mortality unacceptably high, the risk of an aftershock is not something you can dismiss," he said. "So that's a tough combination. And I think the record of history suggests that this is not a time, unlike what the frothy markets are doing, to bet that this is different."

Eoin Treacy's view

With the stock market close to new highs it is easy to conclude that the economic recovery will follow suit. The reality is it might be a while but we are quite likely past the trough. Consumer sentiment has taken a big hit. That damage is strongly correlated with the strictness of lockdowns.

Click HERE to subscribe to Fuller Treacy Money Back to top