The U.K. 10-Year Bond Yield Climbs the Most Since 2013
Comment of the Day

April 22 2015

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

The U.K. 10-Year Bond Yield Climbs the Most Since 2013

This article by David Goodman for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

The BOE minutes may be the last opportunity for investors to gain insight into the central bank’s thinking on policy until after the May 7 general election, with Governor Mark Carney and his colleagues on the Monetary Policy Committee in a quiet period until a government has been formed. Officials voted unanimously in April to keep the main rate at 0.5 percent for a 73rd month.

Eoin Treacy's view

The proximity of the UK’s election is an inhibiting factor for the Bank of England’s policy makers so despite the vote being tight, the outcome was relatively assured. However since either the Bank of England or Fed will probably be the first central bank to raise rates the response of UK denominated assets to today’s news gives us a possible preview of what we might expect later this year. 

The Pound has pushed back above the psychological $1.50 area again following the news but a sustained move above the still declining 200-day MA will be required to confirm a failed downward break and potential for higher to lateral ranging. 

UK Gilt yields failed to sustain the move below 1.5% in January and are now bouncing from that area to post the first higher reaction low in more than 18 months. It would need to take out that level to question potential for additional expansion.

 

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