The Resistible Fall of Europe: An Interview with George Soros
Comment of the Day

May 17 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

The Resistible Fall of Europe: An Interview with George Soros

My thanks to a subscriber for the link to this excellent interview from Project Syndicate, and for also highlighting the Soros statement at the end of this section shown below
QUESTION: The lack of access to credit on equal terms creates an uneven playing field. This is a handicap for different countries and makes it more difficult for them to regain competitiveness. What should be done?

SOROS: It is important to recognize that this disadvantage consists of two components. One is the cost of borrowing by the government, and the other is the cost of borrowing by the private sector. Recently, since the Cyprus rescue, the private sector's disadvantage, particularly for small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), increased to crisis proportions. Fortunately, the authorities recognize this. The European Central Bank is discussing the possibility of using its resources to help resolve this problem. And it is very, very important what they come up with. I am hopeful that they will produce a scheme that could make a difference. If you could package the loans to SMEs and refinance them at the ECB on equal terms, that would mean that enterprises south of the Alps would be able to borrow on more or less equal terms with enterprises north of the Alps. That would be a game-changer.

I am sure that this will be resisted on legal grounds. I am not in a position to follow the battle within the ECB from the outside, but what the outcome will have a major influence on the future course of events.

It should not escape your attention that if the ECB succeeded in making credit available on equal terms, it would effectively mean a large-scale mutualization of rather risky debts. Once that happened, it would make sense to mutualize government debts as well. Guarantees have a peculiar feature: the more comprehensive and convincing they are, the less likely they are to be invoked and to result in losses. So the securitization of SME loans could be an indirect route to Eurobonds. It would certainly be a step in that direction. That is why it is bound to be resisted. But success could lead to a positive resolution of the euro crisis.

David Fuller's view Few commentators on the European situation have the economic grasp and wisdom of George Soros. He points out that the euro's problems are a combination of the financial crisis of 2007/2008, and more importantly in my view, the European Union's own political crisis.

The financial crisis is slowly being resolved on a global basis. Europe has the capacity to resolve its political crisis.

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