The Nasdaq-100
Comment of the Day

June 13 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

The Nasdaq-100

Eoin Treacy's view Amidst concerns over the trajectory of Spanish yields, the threat of unsustainably high Italian yields, the prospect of Greece becoming ungovernable, China's economic slowdown, political gridlock in the USA, recessions in a number of European countries, heightened volatility and increasing investor angst it is easy to become dismissive of investment opportunities. However, there has never been a crisis that has not resulted in opportunity.

The Nasdaq-100 is populated with a large number of companies that are leveraged to growth of the global consumer. While global economic slowdown is a concern, the epicentre of risk is Europe and globally oriented companies often have a sufficient cushion in terms of markets and margins to withstand turbulence.

The Index has been trending relatively consistently since early 2009 when it completed a Type-2 bottom as taught at The Chart Seminar. It is also one of the few indices to have surmounted its 2008 peak globally and to have held the gain. Following what has so far been a relatively similar sized reaction to those posted in 2010 and 2011, the Index has returned to test the region of the 200-day MA and the upper side of the underlying trading range where is has encountered at least near-term support. If the experience of 2010 and 2011 is repeated then a period of support building is to be expected. A sustained move below 2250 would be required to seriously question medium-term uptrend consistency.

Against the background of the current medium-term correction, the performance of some of the index's higher yielding shares is particularly noteworthy. Paychex (4.09%), Maxim Integrated Products (3.34%), Linear Technology (3.28%), Intel (3.17%), KLA-Tencor Corp (2.94%) and Xilinx (2.42%) all yield more than the S&P500, posted upside weekly key reversals last week and have either held the gain or improved on it this week. Of those with a lower yield than the S&P500, or those with no yield, Cisco Systems (1.55%), Amazon, Biogen, Akamai Technologies and Citrix Systems also posted upside weekly key reversals last week. While not listed on the Nasdaq, EMC Software shares a similar pattern. SanDisk and Qualcomm (1.51%) did not post upside key reversals but their upward dynamics from previous areas of support are noteworthy nonetheless.

Habitual leaders in the Index such as Dollar Tree Stores, Ross Stores (0.77%) Perrigo (0.28%) and Whole Foods Markets (0.53%) continue to post new all-time highs. Expedia has surged higher over the last couple of months, is also posting new all-time highs but is becoming increasingly overextended. Monster Beverages is also becoming increasingly susceptible to mean reversion. O'Reilly Automotive and Bed Bath & Beyond have not yet hit new highs but remain in very orderly consolidations.

Both Mattel (3.35%) and News Corp (0.91%) are noteworthy because they exhibit such consistent uptrends. Both found support in the region of their respective 200-day MAs and sustained moves below them would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Comcast has been consolidating in the region of the 10-year peak since February and has at least partially unwound the overbought condition relative to the 200-day MA. A sustained move below $27 would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

In a distinctly uncertain environment the above shares represent some of the best performers in one of the world's most impressive indices. Provided the Nasdaq-100 continues to hold in the current region and the shares which posted upside key reversals hold above their recent lows, the benefit of the doubt can continue to be given to the medium-term upside. Amidst concerns over the trajectory of Spanish yields, the threat of unsustainably high Italian yields, the prospect of Greece becoming ungovernable, China's economic slowdown, political gridlock in the USA, recessions in a number of European countries, heightened volatility and increasing investor angst it is easy to become dismissive of investment opportunities. However, there has never been a crisis that has not resulted in opportunity.

The Nasdaq-100 is populated with a large number of companies that are leveraged to growth of the global consumer. While global economic slowdown is a concern, the epicentre of risk is Europe and globally oriented companies often have a sufficient cushion in terms of markets and margins to withstand turbulence.

The Index has been trending relatively consistently since early 2009 when it completed a Type-2 bottom as taught at The Chart Seminar. It is also one of the few indices to have surmounted its 2008 peak globally and to have held the gain. Following what has so far been a relatively similar sized reaction to those posted in 2010 and 2011, the Index has returned to test the region of the 200-day MA and the upper side of the underlying trading range where is has encountered at least near-term support. If the experience of 2010 and 2011 is repeated then a period of support building is to be expected. A sustained move below 2250 would be required to seriously question medium-term uptrend consistency.

Against the background of the current medium-term correction, the performance of some of the index's higher yielding shares is particularly noteworthy. Paychex (4.09%), Maxim Integrated Products (3.34%), Linear Technology (3.28%), Intel (3.17%), KLA-Tencor Corp (2.94%) and Xilinx (2.42%) all yield more than the S&P500, posted upside weekly key reversals last week and have either held the gain or improved on it this week. Of those with a lower yield than the S&P500, or those with no yield, Cisco Systems (1.55%), Amazon, Biogen, Akamai Technologies and Citrix Systems also posted upside weekly key reversals last week. While not listed on the Nasdaq, EMC Software shares a similar pattern. SanDisk and Qualcomm (1.51%) did not post upside key reversals but their upward dynamics from previous areas of support are noteworthy nonetheless.

Habitual leaders in the Index such as Dollar Tree Stores, Ross Stores (0.77%) Perrigo (0.28%) and Whole Foods Markets (0.53%) continue to post new all-time highs. Expedia has surged higher over the last couple of months, is also posting new all-time highs but is becoming increasingly overextended. Monster Beverages is also becoming increasingly susceptible to mean reversion. O'Reilly Automotive and Bed Bath & Beyond have not yet hit new highs but remain in very orderly consolidations.

Both Mattel (3.35%) and News Corp (0.91%) are noteworthy because they exhibit such consistent uptrends. Both found support in the region of their respective 200-day MAs and sustained moves below them would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Comcast has been consolidating in the region of the 10-year peak since February and has at least partially unwound the overbought condition relative to the 200-day MA. A sustained move below $27 would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

In a distinctly uncertain environment the above shares represent some of the best performers in one of the world's most impressive indices. Provided the Nasdaq-100 continues to hold in the current region and the shares which posted upside key reversals hold above their recent lows, the benefit of the doubt can continue to be given to the medium-term upside.

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