The Idiot Maker Rally
Comment of the Day

March 06 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

The Idiot Maker Rally

Eoin Treacy's view Thanks to a subscriber for this compilation of bearish remarks posted on Business Insider from 2009 onwards. While some of the people quoted are quite high profile, the more instructive way to view this information is as a reflection of the general sense of pessimism that has pervaded markets from 2008.

David has often said “ monetary policy trumps most other factors most of the time ” and the central bank response to the threat of depression has been unprecedented monetary stimulus that continues to buoy risk assets. Rather than attempt to impose our own opinion of what might happen, let us instead allow the price action to be our guide. Despite a short-term overbought condition, a sustained move below 1480 on the S&P500 is the minimum required to question medium-term upside potential.

When someone sends through a compilation where strategists are competing for the most bullish statement, it will act more as a reflection of how they have already positioned themselves rather than how high the market is likely to move and will be a contrary indicator.

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