The Changing World Order: Focusing on External Conflict and the Russia-Ukraine-NATO Situation
Comment of the Day

March 02 2022

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

The Changing World Order: Focusing on External Conflict and the Russia-Ukraine-NATO Situation

This article from Ray Dalio may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

1.Trade/economic wars
2.Technology wars
3.Geopolitical wars
4.Capital wars
5.Military wars  

These competitions or wars reward the winners and penalize the losers, which reinforce their strengthenings or their weakenings. They vary in severity from healthy competitions to all-out wars. The progression tends to be from the first one on the list (trade/economic wars) toward the last one on the list (military wars), with each growing in intensity. Then, when a military hot war begins, all four of the other types of wars are applied full-on and weaponized. For these reasons, by monitoring the progression and intensities of the conflicts one can pretty well anticipate what is likely to come next.

To be a leading world power one must be strong in most of the major ways. For example, the United States and China are now strong in all of these ways but Russia is not. For that reason Russia needs to align itself with a leading power (China) to win wars.

Eoin Treacy's view

I believe it is an accurate characterization that Russia will have difficulty winning and cementing victory without some form of support from China. Whether that is through commodity purchases, increased use of the electronic renminbi or continued intolerance for security council measures at the UN, Russia needs China to help to support its economy as sanctions are amplified in line with is aggression in Ukraine

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