The Autonomies and mean reversion
Comment of the Day

May 22 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

The Autonomies and mean reversion

Eoin Treacy's view This has been a trying couple of months for global stock markets with almost every sector displaying susceptibility to increased volatility and selling pressure. Despite the deterioration there has been a clear divergence between companies leveraged to industrial production and those focused on the growth of the global consumer base. This characteristic was also evident from July 2011 and reflected the competition between the views that the global economy was slowing down versus the resilience of Asia's growth economies.

The Autonomies which we define as truly global companies, that have outgrown their respective markets, have brand recognition, dominate their respective niches, possess solid cash flows and a strong record of dividend increases have mostly outperformed. However, even among these companies mean reversion towards the 200-day MA is evident.

During my tour of the USA with The Chart Seminar from early April it was evident that many of these shares had entered periods of mean reversion following very impressive performances from Q3 2011. Many have returned to interesting levels so it appears an opportune time to review the sector.

The Nasdaq-100 found at least short-term support in the region of the 200-day MA and the upper side of the underlying trading range yesterday. A sustained move below 2500 would now be required to question potential for some additional upside. Apple, which is a totem in the technology sector and the Autonomies, pulled back sharply from its April peak but also found at least short-term support yesterday above its MA. Samsung Electronics has a similar pattern. Microsoft, Google, Novellus Systems and Intel Corp all tested their 200-day MAs over the last few sessions and have found at least short-term support. IBM continues to pause in the region of the MA while Cisco Systems, Qualcomm and Microchip Technologies have pulled back below their trend means. Cisco Systems dropped abruptly two weeks ago on a disappointing growth forecast but has stabilised above $16. Qualcomm found at least short-term support yesterday while Microchip Technology has returned to a potential area of support in the region of the 2011 lows near $30. Potential for at least a bounce has increased. HTC has also retuned to test last year's lows.

In the healthcare sector, Novo Nordisk has lost upward momentum somewhat and while it has at least partially unwound the overbought condition relatively to the 200-day MA some additional mean reversion appears likely. Biogen also appears susceptible to mean reversion. Bristol Myer Squibb, Eli Lilly, GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi have returned to the region of their respective 200-day MAs and will need to continue to find support in this area if their medium-term uptrends are to remain consistent. Johnson & Johnson and Merck have been mostly rangebound and clear upward dynamics will be required to confirm the return of demand to dominance. Pfizer continues to trend higher.

In the restaurants sector, Yum Brands found support yesterday in the region of $67.50 having at least partially wound the overbought condition relative to the 200-day MA. McDonalds held a move below its 200-day MA for the first time in more than 30 months. It has paused near $90 but needs to hold above that level if the medium-term uptrend is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.

In the alcoholic beverages sector, Anheuser-Busch In Bev, Diageo, Remy Cointreau, Pernod Ricard and Asia Pacific Breweries lost momentum somewhat from March and remain in a process of mean reversion towards the ascending 200-day MA. SABMiller has returned to test the region of the 200-day MA and the upper side of the underlying trading range and appears to have found support.

In the non-alcoholic beverages sector Starbucks has at least partially unwound its overbought condition relative to the 200-day MA and found at least short-term support yesterday above the psychological $50 area. Coca Cola continues to unwind its short-term overbought condition while PepsiCo is rallying towards the upper side of the two-year range.

In the Foods and Consumer Goods sector, Nestle, Unilever, Proctor & Gamble, Heinz, Mead Johnson Nutrition and Reckitt Benckiser have been mostly rangebound for the last few months but continue to find support above or in the region of their respective 200-day MAs. Kraft and Hengan International have outperformed somewhat. Colgate Palmolive, Kimberly Clark and Uni Charm are susceptible to additional mean reversion. Following a questioning of its sales strategy by David Einhorn Herbalife dropped abruptly. It has found at least short-term support near $42 and in a best case scenario will need to spend some time consolidating before it can support a significant advance from these levels.

While in the cosmetics sector, Nu Skin Enterprises shares a similar sale strategy with Herbalife. It also pulled back sharply and has paused in the region of $40. While there is scope for an additional bounce, technical damage has been done to what had previously been a consistent uptrend. If the suspicions of those touting the bearish case are correct, it will fail to build support in the current region. Estee Lauder has pulled back sharply and is now testing the region of the 200-day MA. It has steadied somewhat today but a clear upward dynamic will be required to confirm a return to demand dominance in this area.

In the luxury goods sector, LVMH, Christian Dior and BMW failed to hold moves to new highs in March and have pulled back to test the 200-day MA. They will need to continue to find support above or in the region of the 200-day MA if the medium-term upside is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt. Compagnie Financiere Richemont found support in the region of the MA two weeks ago and is rallying. Nike has lost momentum somewhat and looks susceptible to some additional mean reversion.

In the supermarkets sector, Wal-Mart found support in the region of the 200-day MA late last month and has rallied back to test the 2008 peak. A sustained move below $58 would now be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Tesco is testing the lower side of its nearly five-month range and a clear upward dynamic is required to check potential for some additional downside.

In the mining sector, both BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto dropped back to test their respective 2011 lows and bounced impressively today. Sustained moves below last week's lows will be required to question potential for additional upside.

In the compressed gases sector, Air Liquide, Linde and Praxair have returned to test their respective MAs and appear to have found at least short-term support.

In the energy sector, Exxon Mobil has paused in the region of its 200-day and the lower side of the five-month trading range. Royal Dutch Shell pulled back sharply over the last month and is now testing the three-year uptrend.

In the Industrials sector, Siemens and Emerson Electric encountered resistance in the region of their respective 200-day MAs from late last year and will need to sustain moves above them to suggest a return to medium-term demand dominance. Intertek Group has lost upward momentum since March in at least a partial unwind of the overbought condition relative to the 200-day MA. A sustained move below it would be required to question medium-term potential for additional upside.

In conclusion, there are tentative signs that the majority of the Autonomies are finding support in the region of their 200-day MAs. Provided they continue to find support in the region of their trend means, the medium-term upside can continue to be given the benefit of the doubt. Some have experienced deeper reactions and will now need to demonstrate support building before they can support moves to reassert medium-term demand dominance.

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