Thailand King Critical, What happens if he dies?
Comment of the Day

October 12 2016

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Thailand King Critical, What happens if he dies?

This article from the South China Morning Post may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Thai monarchy observers said the choice of words stood out from previous official updates on the ailing king’s health. The widely venerated monarch enthroned since 1946 has been out of the public eye in recent years due to a range of health issues including renal failure. The palace has released more frequent updates of his health this year.

Ailing Thai king's health 'not stable' after haemodialysis treatment, palace says
Commentary from within Thailand about the king’s health and succession plans is scarce because of the country’s tough royal defamation laws, which has seen increased usage under the current military government.

“This is an extraordinary statement from the Royal Household Bureau. Usually they try to say something positive, not this time,” said Kevin Hewison, a veteran Thai politics expert who is emeritus professor of Asian Studies at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Eoin Treacy's view

The Thai king has been a unifying force in a country where political uncertainty has long been a destabilising issue. Proposed elections and a return to civil rule might be delayed should the king die even if the crown prince is expected to take over. 

The Dollar has been trending higher in a reasonably consistent manner against the Baht since 2013 and this week’s upward dynamic confirms support in the region of the trend mean. A sustained move below THB34.50 would now be required to question medium-term scope for additional Dollar strength. 

The SET Index has been ranging in a volatile manner for more than two years but closed well off its spike lows today. Some supporting building will likely be required to allow confidence to be rebuilt before a move above 1500 can be sustained; subject to political developments. 

Back to top

You need to be logged in to comment.

New members registration