Under a constitution promulgated in 2017, the military-appointed senators get to vote alongside the 500 elected lower house members to decide on the next prime minister. 

Political parties affiliated with Thaksin, 73, have won the most seats in every national vote dating back to 2001, only to be unseated from power by dissolutions or coups. 

Whether Thaksin’s planned return to Thailand in July will exacerbate tensions with the military elite is another question. The telecoms magnate has been living in self-imposed exile after fleeing to avoid prison over a corruption conviction that followed a coup that toppled his own government in 2006.

Eoin Treacy's view

Thaksin Shinawatra’s plan to return to the land of smiles in July is certainly going to represent a flash point in democrats’ relationship with the military. Quashing the corruption charge could easily be a precondition for successful negotiation of a coalition agreement to form a civilian government. The challenge will be in how a new administration will further their aims, without running headlong into opposition from the military/royalty-aligned status quo.