Tapering on Deck-Stick with Defensive Quality in Factor Frenzy
Comment of the Day

December 13 2021

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Tapering on Deck-Stick with Defensive Quality in Factor Frenzy

Thanks to a subscriber for this report from Morgan Stanley which may be of interest. Here is a section:

Tapering is tightening for markets, if not the economy. Due to the much greater than expected rise in inflation, the Fed is pivoting to a more aggressive removal of monetary accommodation. We believe this is warranted and supported by an administration that appears less focused on the stock market as a barometer of its success. Furthermore, tapering is different than in 2014 for 3 reasons: 1) the Fed is exiting QE twice as fast this time,2) asset prices are much richer today and 3) growth is decelerating rather than accelerating. This could be important for the economy, too, given how levered consumers are to stock prices today.

Eoin Treacy's view

The uptrend over the last 13 years has been liquidity fuelled. That’s been the abiding factor behind every correction and every recovery since the initial lows in late 2008. It is reasonable to expect the end of the latest quantitative easing program will have a similar effect on market prices as every other one.

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