Stocks Advance as EU Leaders Draft Framework for Bailout Fund
Comment of the Day

November 28 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Stocks Advance as EU Leaders Draft Framework for Bailout Fund

Here is the opening from Bloomberg's market report:
Global stocks rose for the first time in 11 days and commodities climbed after U.S. Thanksgiving weekend retail sales jumped to a record and speculation grew that European leaders will do more to tame the debt crisis. The euro rose, while Treasuries reversed earlier losses.

The MSCI All-Country World Index added 3 percent at 4 p.m. in New York, snapping its longest slump since 2008, and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rallied 2.9 percent to halt a seven- day losing streak. The euro strengthened 0.6 percent to $1.3312 after climbing as much as 1.2 percent. Ten-year Treasury yields were little changed at 1.97 percent after jumping as much as 11 points. The cost of insuring European government debt fell for the first time in eight days. Oil rose 1.5 percent.

The S&P 500 rallied the most in a month after the National Retail Federation said yesterday that retail sales climbed 16 percent to a record over the holiday weekend. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble urged fast-track treaty changes to tighten budget discipline, while guidelines that finance ministers will discuss this week showed that Europe's rescue fund may insure bonds of debt-stricken countries with guarantees of 20 percent to 30 percent.

"It's a sea of green and nothing is being left behind in this rally," Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Philadelphia-based Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, which manages $54 billion, said in a telephone interview. "Equity prices are being powered higher by the quite good Black Friday sales in the U.S. and reports that European officials are rallying around some form of political cohesion to solve the debt crisis."

David Fuller's view There was no major catalyst in terms of news behind today's rally but stock markets became extremely oversold last week. That was sufficient justification for at least a temporary short covering rally but will we see more?

Probably, given some of the technical signals. Europe has been the focal point of global concerns but the Euro Stoxx 50 Index (weekly & daily) has found support above its September lows and recorded a clear upward dynamic today. Upside follow through on Tuesday would suggest a higher low of at least near-term significance. However, a push above 2500 and eventually the declining 200-day MA will be required to confirm a major floor near 2000. Of greater concern is the Euro Stoxx Banks Index (weekly & daily) although it bounced from its September lows today which are also in the region of the 2009 trough. A much stronger rebound is necessary to indicate more than temporary support near the former lows.

Upside leadership is required by the US stock market, given the powerful Wall Street leash effect, and the Russell 2000 Index (weekly & daily) rebounded today. Nevertheless, it will need to push above the October high and the declining MA to break the overall downward bias. A cautionary note is provided by the iShares IBOXX Investment Grade Bond Fund (weekly & daily) which has seen an upside failure and sharp reaction over the previous three weeks. It is short-term oversold and failure to rally from here would suggest concern over corporate finances.

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