Stock market review
Comment of the Day

May 27 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Stock market review

The decline from the mid-April highs has been precipitous for a large number of indices and has seen many develop short-term, deeply oversold conditions. Bearish sentiment has been pervasive and heightened volatility across asset classes has been a cause for investor anxiety. However, while the decline has been swift, many indices have returned to areas of potential support, whether at their progressions of rising major reaction lows or their 200-day moving averages. The all encompassing question has been, will they or won't they find support and rally from near current levels?

Eoin Treacy's view The Indonesian market did just that yesterday, posting a large upward dynamic from the psychological 2500 level. It held the advance today despite some intraday weakness. This action has at least checked the short-term decline and a sustained move below 2500 would be required to begin to give some of the more bearish forecasts credence. The Jakarta Finance Index also improved on yesterday's gain.

The Malaysian market formed an upside key day reversal today and a sustained move below 1250 would be required to question scope for some additional firming.

The Nikkei-225, Topix and Topix Banks indices all posted upside key day reversals today. The Nikkei-225 has fallen 1500 points this month alone, forming a deeply oversold condition. It has returned to an area of potential support and the Yen is looking equally overbought. Additional follow through tomorrow will lend further credence to the case for at least a relief rally.

The Shanghai A-Shares Index is oversold in the short-term and has begun to steady. However, a sustained move back above 3350 is needed to break the medium-term progression of lower rally highs.

The Euro Stoxx 50 has fallen almost 15% since mid-April and dropped below the psychological 2500 on Tuesday. However, it has since rallied, pushing through 2600 today, in what is looking increasingly like a failed downside break. A sustained move below 2500 would now be required to question scope at least a relief rally.

The German DAX found support well above its February lows rather than well below them as with the Euro Stoxx 50 above. The rally of the last two days is occurring from the region of the 200-day moving average and a sustained move below 5600 would be required to further question scope for some further higher to lateral ranging.

The performance of the UK's FTSE-100 lies somewhere between that of the Stoxx 50 and DAX. It has fallen through its 200-day moving average but has steadied in the region of the February low and the psychological 5000. A relief rally appears to be underway but a sustained move back above the MA would be required to indicate demand has regained medium-term potency.

The Greek market has almost halved since October and is one of a small number of markets to return to test their March 2009 lows. It is deeply oversold relative to the 200-day moving average and has lost downward momentum as it approaches the psychological 1500. However, an incontrovertible upward dynamic is required to confirm support in this area.

The S&P 500 has also fallen through its 200-day moving average but has steadied in the region of its February lows. The one-month downtrend has at least been checked but a sustained move back above 1100 would be needed to indicate demand is regaining dominance beyond the current bounce. The VIX Index posted a downside key reversal on the 21st and continues to pull back from its peak, supporting the argument that at least a short-term low has been reached.

The Nasdaq-100 has pulled back to test the May 6th intraday low which is in the region of the 200-day moving average and above the February lows, so the medium-term progression of higher reaction lows remains intact. Provided the low near 1750 is not taken out, the benefit of the doubt can probably be given to some further higher to lateral ranging.

To one extent or another, all of the above indices have sustained some technical damage to their medium-term uptrends. However, they have become oversold in the short-term and many are finding support in the region of their 200-day moving averages and/or their February lows. An increasing number of relief rallies appear to be getting underway. There is no way of knowing at this stage whether we have seen a low or THE low for this correction. Sustained moves below the recent lows would be required to reassert short-term downtrends, while the extent of technical damage done as well as the blow to sentiment makes the potential for some additional ranging above the recent lows a distinct possibility.

If the broad bullish environment which has been in place since at least March 2009 is to be reasserted the majority of global stock market indices will have to sustain moves back above their 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks and potentially months. If the most likely scenario of additional ranging comes about, then we can expect a raging argument to develop as the bulls and bears vie for dominance. This will make a factual reading of the chart action even more vital.

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