Steve Jobs Uses iCloud to Pick Apart Industry He Helped Form
Comment of the Day

June 07 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Steve Jobs Uses iCloud to Pick Apart Industry He Helped Form

This article by Adam Satariano and Peter Burrows for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
"We're going to demote the PC and the Mac to just be a device -- just like an iPad, an iPhone or an iPod Touch," Jobs, dressed in a black sweater and jeans, said yesterday. "We're going to move the hub of your digital life to the cloud."

Apple recently completed a $1 billion data center in North Carolina that will serve as the backbone of the iCloud service. It will help devices synchronize calendar items, contacts, mail, iTunes songs, photos, apps and other files. "If you don't think we're serious about this, you're wrong," Jobs said while showing pictures of the data center.

Yesterday's event marked Jobs's second public appearance of 2011. Though he has been on medical leave since Jan. 17, Jobs remains involved in Apple's decision making. His absence is the third since 2004 as he copes with a rare form of cancer.

Eoin Treacy's view Apple has for quite some time stood on the sidelines of the emerging cloud computing sector. Yesterday's announcement changes that attitude with a wholesale migration of emphasis to this emerging technology. While the tech savvy are familiar with cloud computing, many people have yet to hear of the movement. I have seen a number of companies beginning to advertise in airports and on expressways that they are open for cloud computing business which suggests the technology is now becoming more mainstream. This report from Deloitte, kindly forwarded by a subscriber, carries much more information on the subject. The last time I reviewed the relevant shares was in Comment of the Day on March 4th.

Apple remains within a consistent medium-term uptrend which has been characterized by a series of relatively similar sized ranges one above another. It has found support in the region of the 200-day MA on successive occasions in a sustained move below $320 would be required to begin to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

Amazon failed to sustain the break to new highs in May and is in a renewed period of mean reversion. A sustained move below $160 would be required to indicate a more conclusive loss of medium-term uptrend consistency.

IBM broke above the psychological $140 in September and has extended the breakout impressively. It is currently somewhat overextended relative to the 200-day MA and a process of mean reversion appears to be underway. A sustained move below the $150 area would be required to check medium-term uptrend consistency.

EMC Software completed a decade-long base in September but now also appears to have entered a period of mean reversion. The medium-term uptrend can continue to be given the benefit of the doubt provided it continues to hold above or in the region of the 200-day MA.

BMC Software also rallied impressively from September but hit a peak last week posting a downside weekly key reversal and appears to be following through this week. Provided it continues to find support in the region of the 200-day MA the upside can be given the benefit of the doubt. Citrix Systems, Check Point Software, Altera Corp and Oracle share a similar pattern.

Cognizant Technology Solutions has already pulled back to test the MA and would need to sustain a move below it to question medium-term uptrend consistency.

Juniper Networks failed to sustain the breakout from its decade long base and has pulled back below the 200-day MA. A break in the four-month progression of lower rally highs would be required to indicate a return to medium-term demand dominance.

Google has been largely rangebound for the last 18 months and has fallen to retest the lower side. A sustained move above $550 would be needed to confirm a return to demand dominance in this area.

The above charts share a common characteristic of mean reversion following an impressive period of outperformance, particularly from September. Most of the above shares will need to find support in the region of their 200-day MAs to remain consistent and defray the risk

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