Steak Quesadillas Seen as Driving Yum Taco Bell Rebound
Comment of the Day

March 14 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Steak Quesadillas Seen as Driving Yum Taco Bell Rebound

This article by Leslie Patton for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
Taco Bell's rebound comes as challenges in China weigh on the parent's shares. Yum is struggling to win back consumers in its biggest overseas market after a former supplier's chicken was found to contain high levels of antibiotics. In November, Yum was trading at a 64 percent premium to the Standard & Poor's 500 Index on a price-to-earnings basis, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Now it's trading at a 37 percent premium.

David Fuller's view Yum Brands' announcement that its Chinese sales would come in below expectations resulted in a sharp sell-off late last year and the share remains in a range. McDonalds has also reported slower growth in its international businesses which weighed on performance, although it has picked up of late. Since 2008, the majority of growth has come from international markets, particularly Asia, so it is notable that the domestic US market is now beginning to recover and contribute more to growth.

This trend is borne out in the performance of restaurant chains with a purely North American focus. Texas Roadhouse broke out to new all-time highs three weeks ago and a sustained move below $18 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Brinker International has rallied back to test the September and 2007 peak and a clear downward dynamic would be required check potential for an upward break. Panera Bread has been largely rangebound since September but found support in the region of the MA last week and a sustained move below $180 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Ruth's Chris Steakhouse has held a progression of higher major reaction lows since 2009. While somewhat overbought in the short-term a sustained move below the 200-day, currently near $7.25, would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store has surged over the last few weeks and is becoming increasingly susceptible to mean reversion.

The performance of the above shares suggests that the recovery of the US economy is at least partially reflected in consumer spending.

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