Some consequences of current monetary policy
Comment of the Day

April 12 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Some consequences of current monetary policy

David Fuller's view The Fed, the ECB, presumably the BoJ if Mr Shirakawa does what he says publicly, and now China - they are all either maintaining or introducing expansionary monetary policies. Fundamentally, this is extremely bullish for gold (weekly & daily) and silver (weekly & daily). However, given their previous corrections and consolidations of approximately eighteen months following earlier upward accelerations over the last decade, it may take a few more months before the latest round of monetary stimulus is fully reflected by monetary metals. Nevertheless, it looks increasingly as if both have seen their floors for this correction and appear to be in the process of establishing the first higher reation low.

Central bank liquidity should also cushion downside risk in the S&P 500 and most other stock market indices, leading to more normal reactions and consolidations at this time, unlike last year's big shakeout. This would help to keep the cyclical bull trends on track.

A firmer performance by China's A-Shares should dispel hard landing fears, firming mining shares which have mostly underperformed this year.

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