Solar Cycle Science
Comment of the Day

June 21 2019

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Solar Cycle Science

The subject of solar minimums is starting to arise once more in popular media and this site, from a former NASA scientist, contains all of the relevant information. Here is a section:

In the 1800s astronomers realized that the appearance of sunspots was cyclic, with a period averaging about 11 years. As new features of the Sun (solar flares, filaments, prominences, coronal loops and coronal mass ejections) were discovered, it was found that they too varied along with the frequency of sunspots. The sunspot number is now commonly accepted as a measure of solar activity. Solar activity itself has been linked to satellite failures, electrical power outages, and variations in Earth’s climate. The impact of solar activity on Earth and our technology has created a need for a better understanding of, and the ability to predict, solar activity.

Sunspot activity over the last four hundred years has shown that the amplitude of the sunspot cycle varies from one cycle to the next. The average cycle has a peak sunspot number of about 150. At times, as in the period known as the Maunder Minimum between 1645 and 1715, solar activity can become so weak that it seems to disappear for several decades at a time.

Eoin Treacy's view

The Maunder Minimum persisted for about 50 years between 1650 and 1700 but rigorous recording of sunspot activity did not really start until 1750. I see a lot of misreporting of data by lobby groups arguing both for and against anthropomorphic climate change with each bending the data to fit their own narrative. I did some cycle analysis of solar cycles a decade ago predicted the lower high of the current cycle so I thought would refresh that now.

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