Small Gold Trader Makes Big Splash
Comment of the Day

January 31 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Small Gold Trader Makes Big Splash

My thanks to a subscriber for this informative article (may require subscription registration, PDF also provided) from The Wall Street Journal. Here is the opening:

David Fuller's view This is a reminder of the financial games people play, often with other people's money. I have nothing against legal speculation by individuals per se, and would be poorer without it. However, I would prefer not to place any of my capital in someone else's speculative fund, not least because I would have little idea regarding either what they did with it or the manner of their trades.

Acting for our own personal accounts, few of us deal in a size that could significantly influence the trend for a liquid market. However pooled funds in highly leverage vehicles are another matter. Some inevitably blow up, sometimes with consequences.

I preferred gold before it became everyone's favourite trading or investment vehicle. Nevertheless, the interesting question today is whether the story above makes gold a safer or more risky investment for serious investors?

Gold bullion (monthly, weekly & daily) is more risky today than it was a few years ago, because it has risen in price against most other investments. Some gold bugs say its price is constant and everything else rises, or has mostly fallen over the last decade, against the yellow metal. OK, but the result is the same.

Gold bullion is also more risky today because it is back on the radar of central banks and regulators. They would almost certainly prefer gold to be less exciting and glamorous, because its stellar performance places some other monetary assets in a less favourable light, not least fiat currencies. In the 'some things never change' department, fiat money has been printed into purchasing power oblivion throughout our monetary history.

Fortunately for holders of gold and other precious metals, they have not yet reached levels where they represent a serious threat to the authority of central banks. In fact, more central banks have been buying rather than selling gold in recent years.

Therefore Daniel Shak and his highly leveraged gold trading scheme may have done bullion investors a small favour, to the extent to which he may have contributed to the recent mean reversion for gold, seen on the longer-term charts above.

Today, I regard gold as a much better buy-and-hold asset, or long trade, than it was back in November when we began to see the downward dynamics. Interestingly, gold's high-beta little sister - silver - had an upside key day reversal on Friday. I may open some long trades in precious metals.

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