Singapore
Comment of the Day

December 10 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Singapore

Eoin Treacy's view Singapore's Strait Times Index found support in the region of the 200-day MA three weeks ago and has since rallied impressively to post a new high for the year. It is somewhat overbought in the short-term and some consolidation of recent gains is likely, but a sustained move below 2940 would be required to question medium-term scope for further upside.

The financial sector has been outperforming since December 2011 and continues to trend higher on a relative basis. In absolute terms, the sector hit a new four-year high this week following an impressive three week rally. Some consolidation of recent gains appears likely, but a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question medium-term scope for further upside. (Also see Comment of the Day on July 4th) United Overseas Bank has returned to test the upper side of its two-year range but will need to sustain a move above S$20 to confirm a return to medium-term demand dominance.

Fraser and Neave (1.9%) rallied impressively since July but has lost momentum somewhat and is overextended relative to the 200-day MA. A reversion towards the mean is looking increasingly likely.

Dairy Farm International Holdings (1.71%) is a constituent of the Jardine group of companies and is also listed in the UK. The share found support in the region of the 200-day MA from November and a sustained move below S$10.40 would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend. Jardine Strategic Holdings found support in the region of the 200-day MA three weeks ago and remains in a consistent uptrend.

Raffles Medical Group is also worthy of mention as one of the world's most prominent medical tourism companies. The share has been confined to a range since November 2010 but has held an upward bias since May and moved above the psychological S$2.50 area last week. While there is still some room for consolidation, a sustained move below S$2.40 would be required to question medium-term scope for continued upside. (Also see Comment of the Day on July 13th)

Among developers Capitaland is representative and is becoming increasingly overextended relative to the 200-day MA. The first clear downward dynamic is likely to signify a peak of least short-term and potentially medium-term significance.

In the telecoms and telecom services sectors Starhub (5.22%), Singapore Telecom (4.7%) and Mobile One (5.29%) all found support in the region of the 200-day MA three weeks ago. They all now have room for some consolidation but sustained moves below their respective 200-day MAs would be required to check medium-term scope for continued higher to lateral ranging.

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