Comment of the Day

July 04 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy


Eoin Treacy's view With some of the lowest valuations of any developed market Singapore (P/E 9.72 dividend yield 3.7%) is beginning to garner the attention of value investors. The Straits Times Index found medium-term support above 2500 in October and has held a progression of higher major reaction lows since. It is rallying back towards the psychological 3000 level and a sustained move above that area would confirm a return to medium-term demand dominance.

The Financials sector is outperforming and has pushed back up into the overhead trading range. United Overseas Bank is among the sector's leaders and is rallying towards the psychological S$20.

Fraser and Neave (2.51%) which has property, beverage and dairy interests hit a new all-time high today and while some consolidation of recent powerful gains appears likely, a sustained move below S$6.70 would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

In the telecoms and cable sector Starhub (5.83%) is becoming increasingly overextended relative to the 200-day MA and is susceptible to mean reversion. Elsewhere, MobileOne (5.71%) and Singapore Telecom (4.73%) are pressuring the upper sides of their respective ranges.

Property shares are also notable. CapitaLand (2.13%) is representative and found support in January near the 2009 low. It subsequently rallied to break the two-year progression of lower rally highs and posted a higher reaction low a month ago. A sustained move below the June low near S$2.40 would be required to question recovery potential. Capitamall Trust (4.75%) has held a progression of higher reaction lows since December and last week's impressive rally suggests a return to more than temporary demand dominance.

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