Until recently, the standard narrative most analysts applied to macroeconomic news went like this: We had a major financial crisis in the fall of 2008, which immediately brought on a severe recession that would be followed by relatively fast recovery.

All countries suffered to some extent; all should recover, albeit presumably at varying rates, and reasonable people could disagree about which nation would grow faster and in a more durable manner.

The prevailing thought was that a rising tide lifts all boats. It turns out that may have been the wrong maritime metaphor. A more apt image may be the advice to investors attributed to Warren Buffett: "You don't know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out." The questions that preoccupy us now are: Is the tide coming in or still going out? Or did the big storm permanently ruin the beach?

To get a fix on where the global economy is heading, start by thinking about just three countries: the U.S., Germany and China. For all three, the central issue is the same: Credit.

Each nation is contending with a different kind of credit crisis, but the crux of the problem is the same for all: How to move away from a model of growth based on very high leverage, while still managing to grow.