Should Netflix Shareholders Hope for a Buyout?
Comment of the Day

October 30 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Should Netflix Shareholders Hope for a Buyout?

This article by Eric McWhinnie for the Wall Street Cheat Sheet may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
The third quarter figures and excuses did not sit well with shareholders. After the results, shares of Netflix dropped 12 percent. However, shares have managed to recover all of the losses in less than a week a rumor hit trading desks and scared short-sellers. According to financial media outlet Benzinga , Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is still interested in acquiring Netflix. Over the past year, Microsoft, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and other companies have been involved with Netflix buyout rumors. The latest speculation was enough to send Netflix shares surging 13 percent on Friday. Neither company has confirmed the rumors, but Hastings did recently announce that he would be stepping down from Microsoft's board of directors in November, potentially removing any conflicts of interest that a buyout may bring.

Eoin Treacy's view Netflix bet everything on its international expansion and has yet to demonstrate that this policy has been successful. Following a decline from its $300 peak to a little above $50 there is every chance that larger, better capitalised companies may view Netflix as a potential target.

The share price has lost momentum over the last year but retains its medium-term downward bias. It has stabilised above $50 since August and firmed from that region again last week. A sustained move below $50 would be required to question medium-term scope for some additional higher to lateral ranging.

As well as solid US earnings, DirecTV, already has an established business in Latin America and appears to have taken a more conservative approach to growth. The share has been consolidating for 15 months and found support two weeks ago in the region of the 200-day MA. A sustained move below $48 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

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