Scrap Metal's Lament: Few Scrap
Comment of the Day

March 23 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Scrap Metal's Lament: Few Scrap

Thanks to a subscriber for this interesting article by Liam Pleven for the Wall Street Journal which may be of interest to the Collective. Here is a section
For now, supply isn't looking likely to rise any time soon.

"There's no house construction, there's no commercial construction," said Jeff Millhollin, head of scrap operations at Pacific Steel & Recycling in Great Falls, Mont. Pacific Steel has locations in seven states, from Rapid City, S.D., to Yakima, Wash.

Many consumers had already depleted any supplies of scrap that were sitting around their garages, backyards, farms and ranches in 2008, when prices for many metals were much higher than they are today, and scrap fetched even higher premiums.

Now, with unemployment high, consumers are holding onto big-ticket items longer.

"They don't throw their old stuff away," Mr. Adams said. "If they don't buy a new one, they fix the old one."

Even scrap dealers are feeling the pinch. The containers that hold scrap are often made of metal, and they can cost $4,000 to $5,000. Now, when a container gets a hole, dealers are likely to try to patch it, said Scott Sherr, the president of Diamond State Recycling Corp. in Wilmington, Del. "I don't know a scrap dealer who's ordered new containers," he said.

Eoin Treacy's view The global economy has returned to growth and even laggards such as the USA and European countries have exited recessions, contributing to higher demand for industrial commodities and helping to support metal prices. This has also helped to support demand for scrap metal but this source of supply is thinning out which could be a bullish sign for iron-ore and steel related shares.

Scrap steel companies such as Nucor, Gerdau Ameristeel and Schnitzer Steel Industries all bottomed in late 2008, but lost upward momentum a year ago and remain in relatively lengthy ranging phases. The drying up of fresh supplies of scrap has likely impacted demand for these shares and contributed to their underperformance relative to the wider market and industrial commodity sector.

Metalico has one of the better chart patterns in the sector and recently found support in the region of the mean, defined by the 200-day moving average. It would need to sustain a move below $4.50 to question scope some further higher to lateral ranging.

There are considerable differences in the performance of global steel companies which would appear to be influenced by domestic stock market activity, scale, production of niche or specialist items as well as access to energy and raw materials.

Arcelor Mittal remains in a relatively consistent step sequence uptrend and is currently rallying, having tested the upper side of the previous range and the mean. A sustained move below €37 would be required to question scope for further higher to lateral ranging.

Tenaris posted a large weekly key reversal in late February and continues to consolidate in the region of €15. It remains somewhat overextended relative to the MA but the current reaction is no larger than previous congestion area trading ranges and a sustained move below €13.75 would be required to question the medium-term bullish outlook.

Posco has been performing more or less in line with the wider Korean market. It continues to consolidate above KRW500,000 and a sustained move below that level would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Both Nippon Steel and JFE Holdings remain in yearlong ranges from ¥300 - ¥400 and ¥3000 - ¥4000 respectively, Sustained upward breaks from these ranges would be required to indicate returns to demand dominance.

United States Steel Corp bottomed a year ago and has tripled. It found support in the region of the upper side of the base in February and continues to rally. A sustained move below $40 would be required to limit scope for further higher to lateral ranging.

Allegheny Technologies has had a smaller absolute move to United States Steel but is currently outperforming. It moved to a new recovery high today and a downward dynamic would be required to check momentum beyond a brief pause.

Cia Siderurgica Nacional remains in a consistent medium-term uptrend. It recently found support in the region of the mean and broke upwards to new recovery highs last week. A sustained move back below BRL59 would be required to trigger an MDL stop and begin to question the consistency of the advance.

Tata Steel has found support in the region of the mean on a number of occasions over the last year. A sustained move below INR500 would be required to question scope the ranging uptrend to continue.

Bao Steel lost momentum from August, having failed in the region of CNY10. It continues to sustain the progression of higher reaction lows and a sustained move below CNY7.25 would be required to question potential for additional higher to lateral ranging.

Evraz Group bottomed in November 2008, broke upwards from its base in May 2009 and continues to trend steadily higher. The share remains an impressive absolute performer and moved to a new recovery high last week. A sustained move below 28p would be required to question potential for continued higher to lateral ranging.

Of the iron-ore miners BHP Billiton remains the clear leader, moving to a new all time high last week. While some consolidation in the region of the highs would not be unexpected, a sustained move below 1800p would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

Rio Tinto moved to a new recovery high today and a downward dynamic would be required to check potential for some additional upside. A sustained move below 3000p would be needed to question the medium-term uptrend.

CVRD found support in the region of the mean in February and has rallied back to test the January high near BRL55. A downward dynamic would be needed to question scope for a successful upward break.

In conclusion, the clear leaders in the steel related sector are iron-ore producers which continue to move to new all time and recovery highs. There are a number of steel companies with impressive chart patterns but the degree of commonality is much less compelling and each company needs to be judged on its individual merits. US scrap related companies, generally, remain laggards.

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