Saudi Arabia is aiming to keep oil prices at about $100 a barrel, a third above its previous public target, in a sign that Riyadh needs higher oil revenues to sustain a big rise in public spending .

Ali Naimi, the Saudi oil minister, on Monday for the first time said the world's largest oil producer aimed to keep oil prices at the triple-digit level.

“Our wish and hope is we can stabilise this oil price and keep it at a level around $100 [a barrel],” Mr Naimi told CNN . “If we were able as producers and consumers to average $100 I think the world economy would be in better shape.”

Eoin Treacy's view Saudi Arabia's efforts to avoid revolt through increased social benefits and generous fuel subsidies may remove a short-term element of uncertainty. It does not nothing to allay medium to longer-term fears of upheaval. The country appears ill equipped to cater to the needs and demands of its large, young population who display a strong sense of entitlement without a corresponding work ethic. (Also see David's piece in Comment of the Day on January 6th).

Brent crude oil is currently in backwardation throughout the futures curve, suggesting more than a short-term supply shortage. US Dollar prices are currently challenging the 10-month progression of lower rally highs and have been consolidating above the 200-day MA since late December. A sustained move below $108 would be required to question potential for some additional upside.

The strength of the US Dollar over the last few months has at least partially contained the impact of higher oil prices on the US economy. The same cannot be said for the Eurozone. The downside of a weaker currency is the effect on imported commodity prices. Brent crude priced in Euro has been ranging in the region of the 2008 peak for almost a year. It broke out of this range two weeks ago and a sustained move below €83 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside. While the outlook for global growth remains relatively sanguine, a surge in crude oil prices represents a non-trivial threat to that outlook.