SAP as Most Valuable German Company Validates Deals Spree
Comment of the Day

March 14 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

SAP as Most Valuable German Company Validates Deals Spree

This article by Cornelius Rahn and Aaron Ricadela for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
SAP's top weapon is homegrown. Hana, a database that the company says is the fastest-growing product it's ever sold, cuts the time needed to analyze data and carry out transactions by orders of magnitude. Hana applications -- mostly developed with customers and startups -- range from weather simulations to predicting track conditions for Formula One racing teams to planning cancer treatments.

In October, SAP used Hana to help the National Football League overhaul its fantasy football offering, including an online dashboard to determine the player of the year. And pushed by co-CEO McDermott, a passionate basketball fan, SAP is providing the National Basketball Association with software to parse decades of statistics.

Hana is also beginning to be used by central banks to supervise lenders. SAP says analysts at its 55 central bank customers can analyze data from commercial banks to find potential risks and weaknesses in seconds, versus poring over financial reports to spot trends.

David Fuller's view From 2010, cloud computing was heralded as the next big thing in the technology sector because it offered companies and individuals unprecedented access to information, data, mobile computing and entertainment. With the build-out of data centres, the focus of attention appears to have refocused on application software, not least because cloud computing contributes to increased demand for such processes.

SAP has a solid record of dividend increases, currently yields 1.16% and appeared in the table of European companies that derive at least 40% of their revenue from outside Europe, I posted in Comment of the Day on Tuesday. The Americas and Asia Pacific represent its fastest growing markets. The share has been trending higher since early 2009 and the pace of the advance picked up from 2011. It found support in the region of the 200-day MA from late January and a sustained move below €60 would be required to question medium-term scope for continued upside. (Also see Comment of the Day on July 15th 2010).

Following an impressive advance between 2009 and 2011, Salesforce spent more than 18 months ranging below $160. It broke upwards to new highs in December and a sustained move below $160 would now be required to question medium-term upside potential. Cognizant Technology Solutions and Oracle also spent much of the last two years consolidating and have now returned to test their respective highs. (Also see Comment of the Day on August 1st 2012)

Sage Group is a UK listed S&P Europe 350 Dividend Aristocrat yielding 3.22%. The share broke out to new 12-year highs in February and a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near 305p, would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

French listed Dassault Systems is globally diversified and more than 50% of revenue derived outside Europe. The share has been trending relatively consistently since early 2009 and found support in the region of the 200-day from February. It hit a new recovery high this week and a sustained move below €80 would be required to question medium uptrend consistency.

Intuit broke out of a decade long base in 2010, found support in the region of the upper boundary in 2011 and has held a progression of higher reaction lows since. It surged to a new high over the last couple of weeks and while overbought in the short-term, a sustained move below $60 would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term advance. Netsuite and Ansys share broadly similar patterns. In the healthcare sector, Cerner has a similar pattern.

Synopys has trended consistently higher since 2009 and is now testing the 2004 and 1999 peaks above $35. While there is room for some consolidation in this area, a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near $32, would be required to question medium-term scope for base formation completion.

Workday was listed in October on NYSE and spent much of the last few months ranging. While the company has yet to turn a profit, the share broke out to new highs at the beginning of the month and a sustained move below $55.50 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

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