Samsung, LG, Foxconn Eye Entering Thin Film Solar, Manz CEO Says
Comment of the Day

June 21 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Samsung, LG, Foxconn Eye Entering Thin Film Solar, Manz CEO Says

I found this note by Gelu Sulugiuc and Stefan Nicola for Bloomberg to be illuminating with regard to the underperformance of solar cell manufacturers over the last year. Here it is in full:
LCD panel makers could integrate thin-film solar in their glass manufacturing lines to produce modules at 30c/watt or lower, Manz CEO Dieter Manz says.

Manz says in discussions with Samsung, LG, Foxconn about entry into solar thin-film

Says global solar market needs to be bigger than 100 GW before LCD makers enter, as converting one glass manufacturing line to solar would produce 5 GW

"You will see these factories in a couple of years,'' Manz says

Eoin Treacy's view This article dated December 24th carries additional information on Hon Hai Precision's plans to build a solar cell manufacturing plant and may also be of interest.

The entry of large cap manufacturers with the expertise and scale to reduce costs is a major innovation but is likely to result in the extinction of all but the most technologically advanced higher cost manufacturers. At this point it is probably worth looking at some of the relative outperformers because they are probably most likely to survive.

Solar cell manufacturer shares have been out in the cold for what must seem like forever for anyone with a long position. Such has been the decline in the value of many of these companies that it is now more appropriate to look at 5-year charts on a log scale. The fundamental difficulties experienced by the sector suggest it can be described as speculative.

Canadian Solar aims to become vertically integrated as it steps up its program of not only manufacturing solar panels but also owning the power generating assets. The share has held a progression of higher reaction lows since late November and a sustained move below $2.60 would be required to question current scope for continued higher to lateral ranging.

Following a steep decline Trina Solar has been ranging above $5 since October. It recently retested that area and a sustained move below it would be required to question potential for some additional higher to lateral ranging.

Elsewhere, JA Solar Holdings, Hanwha SolarOne, ReneSola, Suntech Power Holdings, LDK Solar and China Sunergy all lost downward momentum over the last few months, found at least short-term support in the last few weeks and appear to be in the process of unwinding oversold conditions relative to their respective 200-day MAs.

First Solar broke downwards from its more than two-year range in August and accelerated lower from $100 to a recent low of $11.43. The share has found at least short-term support and has held a progressive of higher reaction lows this month. There remains potential for a further unwind of the deeply oversold condition relative to the 200-day MA and a break below $13.28, held for more than a day or two, would be required to question current scope for an additional improvement. Spanish listed Abengoa (3.65%) has a similar pattern. German listed SolarWorld has yet to find even a short-term low and continues to trend lower.

Back to top