S&P Pan Asia Dividend Aristocrats
Comment of the Day

May 30 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

S&P Pan Asia Dividend Aristocrats

S&P Pan Asia Dividend Aristocrats

Eoin Treacy's view This represents an interesting time for many shares as speculation centring on the eventual outcome of the Eurozone crisis intensifies. While Asia is certainly susceptible to contagion in the event of a disorderly conclusion to the Eurozone question, most countries, stock markets and shares have little exposure to Europe. Regardless of the outcome, Europe is still likely to be a primary consumer of Asia's lower cost exports. As a result of the region's internal growth story, it is likely to host some of the first markets to bounce back once a catalyst for renewed speculative interest emerges. (Also see David's review of Asian markets yesterday).

Standard & Poors defines a Pan Asia Dividend Aristocrat as a member of the S&P Pan Asia Broad Market Index which has increased its annual dividend for at least seven consecutive years. I last reviewed the constituents of the S&P Pan Asia Dividend Aristocrats on August 23rd 2011 when the Index yielded 3.3% and had 52 members. It now yields 3.14% and has 57 members. Australia's Downer EDI, India's Andra Bank and Voltas and Japan's Oriental Land have been dropped from the Index. Australia's Cochlear and Super Retail, Hong Kong's ENN Energy Holdings and First Pacific, India's Asian Paints and Tata Power and South Korea's Woongjin Coway are among those which have been added to the Index.

Here is a table of the constituents with their respective yields.

The nominal price Index dropped below the 200-day MA in August last year and has been mostly ranging between 2400 and 2800 since. It encountered resistance below the upper boundary in March and has returned to test the lower side. If the medium-term upside is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt it will need to hold above the 2400 area. A sustained move below that region would complete a Type-2 right hand extension top as taught at The Chart Seminar.

There is a great deal of variability among the constituents both in terms of country and sector. Australia's Coca Cola Amatil (4.15%) hit a new all-time high earlier this month and has so far held the majority of the advance. A sustained move below A$12 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Ramsay Healthcare (2.63%) had become quite overextended relative to the 200-day MA and has entered a process of mean reversion. Super Retail (4.19%) is also in the process of reverting towards the 200-day MA. David Jones (11.83%) has lost downward momentum as it approaches the 2009 lows near A$2. However, a sustained move above A$2.60 would be required to break the progression of low rally highs and indicate short covering.

In Hong Kong, Cheung Kong Infrastructure (3.61%) peaked in September and pulled back to test the 200-day MA. It broke below the trend mean this week for the first time since mid-2010 and a clear upward dynamic is now required to question potential for some additional downside. First Pacific (2.63%) has pulled back to test the region of the upper side of the underlying congestion area and the 200-day MA. An upward dynamic will be required to confirm a return to demand dominance in this area. Hengan International (1.81%) has pulled back to test the 200-day MA and the progression of higher reaction lows. It will need to find support above or in the region of HK70 if the medium-term upside is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.

Indonesia's Semen Gresik Persero (2.22%) has been consolidating above IDR10,000 since late last year and will need to hold above that level if the medium-term upside is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.

India's Asian Paints (1.05%) is becoming increasingly overbought relative to the 200-day MA and is susceptible to mean reversion. HDFC Bank (0.86%) has been a clear outperformer in the banking sector and is currently testing the upper side of the more than yearlong underlying trading range. A clear upward dynamic would confirm a return to demand dominance in this area. ITC (Tobacco 1.94% yield) is in a process of mean reversion following an impressive rally. Tata Consultancy (1.37%) is pressuring the upper side of a more than yearlong consolidation and a sustained move below 1150 would be required to question potential for a successful upward break.

Japan's Eisai (4.67%) remains within its more than three-year base but has a saucering quality consistent with accumulation. A sustained move below ¥3000 would be required to question that view. Japan Tobacco (2.75%) found support last week in the region of the 200-day MA and the ¥400000 area. A sustained move below that level would be required to question medium-term potential for additional upside. Shimamura (1.51%) rallied impressively to test the 2010 highs near ¥9500 by mid-April and has pulled back gently over the last six weeks as it unwinds the overbought condition. Sysmex Corp (1.06%) hit a new all-time high in March and found support last week in the region of the upper side of the underlying trading range. UniCharm (0.8%) is in a process of mean reversion following an impressive advance.

Singapore's Jardine Strategic Holdings (0.72%) has returned to test the progression of rising reaction lows from the October low and will need to find support above S$30 to defray potential for some additional downside.

Taiwan's High Tech Computer (9.43%) has returned to test the December lows near TWD400 and a clear upward dynamic would confirm support in this area. Quanta Computer (5.04%) posted a new 10-year high earlier this month and has pulled back to at least partially unwind the short-term overbought condition. A sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

In conclusion, while the dominant theme among the above shares has been mean reversion over the last six weeks, a number have returned to potential areas of support in the region of their respective 200-day MAs. Provided they demonstrate support in that area, the medium-term upside can continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.

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