Tambov is an example of the problems ahead for Russian farmers - and for global wheat markets. The town lies 400km south-east of Moscow in the heart of the Black Earth region, a vast fertile area that accounts for the bulk of Russia's grain output.

As a light rain fell this week, farmers began sowing winter wheat. But they say there is no certainty the soil will be moist enough for seeds to take root. Planting must be completed before the end of the month when the first frosts usually set in.

Agro Vista, which farms 36,000 hectares of land in Tambov, says it is considering cutting winter wheat planting by 25 per cent if there is not substantial rain in the next few days. "It is a gamble," says David Metcalfe, chief executive. "There is a good chance some of the seeds will fail because of the dryness."

The concern is shared by experts. Dmitry Rylko, director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies in Moscow, a consultancy, says patchy rainfall would allow for successful sowing only in some regions.
Another wheat crop failure would ruin many Russian farmers and put global grain markets under extraordinary pressure.

David Fuller's view See Friday's item on trends for grain and bean prices, and the Library for the latest price action. The Audio contains our latest forecasts.