Robusta Coffee Heads for Biggest Monthly Gain in a Decade
Comment of the Day

July 31 2020

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Robusta Coffee Heads for Biggest Monthly Gain in a Decade

This article by Manisha Jha for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Robusta coffee futures have surged about 16% in London this month, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since June 2010 amid a shift toward home coffee consumption. Worldwide lockdowns that shuttered cafes, restaurants and offices have supported demand for robusta beans, typically favored to brew instant coffee at homes.

“Nestle results provide confirmation at-home sales is doing very well,” said Carlos Mera, an analyst at Rabobank in London. “It was priced in to some extent, based on IRI data from the U.S., but this is more global.”

Robusta spreads have firmed up and its certified stockpiles have fallen to the lowest since the start of last year. Speculators covering their negative positions has also helped prices rally in recent weeks. Smaller robusta crops expected in Brazil and Vietnam in the 2020-21 season are also bullish for prices, Rabobank said.

Eoin Treacy's view

I’ve been working from home for 13 years and even I am drinking more coffee than normal lately. Many people have probably discovered that with the help of capsules of home espresso machines it is possible to get better tasting coffee than what is available from Starbucks. Arguably, that wouldn’t be difficult.

Robusta rallied last week to break back above the trend mean and will need to hold the $1300 level if recovery is to be given the benefit of the doubt.

Arabica has been ranging in a volatile manner mostly above $1 since late 2018. It is rebounding from that level again at present but needs to hold above a $1.25 to confirm a return to medium-term demand dominance.

Sugar failed to sustain the break below 10 in May, with a large upside weekly key reversal. It continues to trend back towards the upper side of the base formation.,

Starbucks has held a succession of lower rally highs for a year and will need to sustain a move above $80 to confirm a return to demand dominance beyond recent steadying.

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