Robin Griffiths' World Investment Strategy: Distorting the contours of the cycle
My thanks to the author for his informative monthly review, published by Investment Research of Cambridge. It is posted in the Subscriber's Area but here is the opening
One of the central tenets of cycle theory is that the long term trend always dominates the shorter term cycle. Joseph Schumpeter, the Austrian economist who did so much to promote our understanding of cyclical behaviour in the 1930s, warned that what he termed "external events" could temporarily distort the contours of a cycle. When one of these external events occurs, the shorter term cycles are more easily blown off course than the longer terms ones (although these, too, can be twisted by very extreme events).
In the current situation we regard Quantitative Easing (QE) as an external event because it is specifically designed to prevent the market acting as it would do without this intervention.
History indicates that when an external event does occur, the underlying rhythm of the cycle does not disappear completely. So, when the impact of the intervention gradually recedes, the cycle will reappear - apparently by magic - bang on time as if nothing had happened. It is possible that something like this is going to happen in the months ahead.
David Fuller's view No other monthly service that I have seen provides a similarly comprehensive global picture.Back to top