Resource Revolution: Tracking global commodity markets
Comment of the Day

September 27 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Resource Revolution: Tracking global commodity markets

Thanks to a subscriber for this interesting report from McKinsey. The full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area but here is a section on aquaculture
Fish prices have also increased significantly since 2000. In 2009, fish accounted for about 16 percent of the global intake of animal protein and 6 percent of all protein consumed. 56 The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that global fish production grew at an average 3.2 percent a year between 1961 and 2009, outpacing the increase of 1.7 percent per year in the world's population. 57 Global per capita food fish supply increased from an average of 9.9 kilograms in the 1960s to 18.4 kilograms in 2009. However, achieving sufficient supplies of fish to meet demand is becoming increasingly challenging. An estimated 30 percent of the world's fish stocks are currently considered overexploited and an additional 50 percent considered fully exploited.58 As a result, wild fisheries production since the late 1980s has largely stagnated.

Aquaculture is beginning to dominate the supply of fish. In 1970, aquaculture accounted for just 4 percent of total seafood supply but now accounts for 46 percent of supply.59 Despite the growth of aquaculture, fish prices overall have increased rapidly due to the rising price of fishmeal, fish, and other feeds, and the fact that catching fish in the wild is more challenging.

Eoin Treacy's view The health benefits of eating fish combined with an increasing ability to pay for it among the world's burgeoning middle classes and declining wild stocks represents a significant growth story for fish farming.

I posted an interesting report in Comment of the Day in January focusing on the opportunities in the salmon farming sector which are no less relevant today.

Norway continues to dominate the global sector. Marine Harvest, Cermaq and Leroy Seafood Group all found support in the region of their respective 200-day MAs from early September and sustained moves below them would be required to question medium-term uptrend consistency.

Salmar continues to outperform but is overextended as it tests the 2011 peak and is susceptible to mean reversion.

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