Randgold cuts 2011 output target on Tongon setbacks
Comment of the Day

November 28 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Randgold cuts 2011 output target on Tongon setbacks

This article from Reuters may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
As anticipated, Q3's difficult operating conditions in the pit, due to the wet weather and mining through transitional ore, persisted into Q4," Randgold said of Tongon in a statement on Monday. "The situation was exacerbated by a number of other factors."

Other factors included a work stoppage, a difficult changeover from diesel-generated power to the national grid and a mill closure.

Randgold had said earlier this month it was in "good shape" to meet the bottom end of its 740,000 to 760,000 ounce target for the year. That target had already been revised from 750,000 to 790,000 ounces after abnormal rainfall hit production at its Loulo/Gounkoto mining complex in Mali.

The revised output will still be well above 2010, when the miner produced about 440,000 ounces.

Eoin Treacy's view The Amex NYSE Gold Bugs Index has been ranging mostly above the 2008 peak for much of the last year. It found support above 500 today, in line with stock and commodity markets. A sustained move to new high ground would confirm the return of medium-term demand dominance.

GoldCorp, Barrick Gold Corp and AngloGold Ashanti have relatively similar patterns to the Gold Bugs Index.

Newmont Mining Corp rallied well today and has so far held the short-term progression of rising reaction lows and remains above the 200-day MA. A sustained move below $60 would be required to check current scope for additional upside. Yamana Gold has yet to post new highs but otherwise has a relatively similar pattern.

IAMGold has been ranging mostly above $18 for most of the year and rebounded from near that level today. Eldorado Gold, Harmony Gold Mining, Gold Fields and Compania de Minas Buenaventura are also rallying from the lower side of their respective ranges. Coeur d'Alene Mines remains in the region of the upper side of its six-month range and a clear downward dynamic would be required to check current scope for some additional upside.

Following today's downward revision of production, Rand Gold Resources was one of the only shares in the Index to post a negative return. It has now almost completed a reversion towards the 200-day MA and will need to hold above the $95 region if the medium-term upside is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt. New Gold Inc also pulled back today, extending a fall below the 200-day MA for the fist time since mid 2009. A clear upward dynamic will be required to indicate a return to demand dominance.

Agnico Eagle, Hecla Mining and Kinross Gold all continue to trend lower and will need to break their progressions of lower rally highs to check medium-term supply dominance.

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