Rand Conspiring With Deficit to Upend Doves: South Africa Credit
Comment of the Day

September 10 2014

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Rand Conspiring With Deficit to Upend Doves: South Africa Credit

This article by Rene Vollgraaff for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

The Reserve Bank’s monetary policy committee meets next week and again in two months after raising the benchmark lending rate by 75 basis points this year to 5.75 percent. While inflation eased to 6.3 percent in July, remaining above policy makers’ target, the gauge stripping out food, energy and gasoline costs climbed to the highest level since January 2010.

“We could see another interest-rate increase,” Ronel Oberholzer, an economist at Pretoria-based IHS Global Insight Southern Africa, said by phone yesterday. “The bank will probably use the rand’s movement as a reason, but then it would pause and see what happens with growth, which will be bad this year.”

Eoin Treacy's view

The US Dollar remains in a consistent uptrend against the Rand and rallied this week from the region of the 200-day MA. A sustained move below ZAR10.50 would be required to question medium-term potential for additional strength. 
  

 

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