Presidential Cycle today?
Comment of the Day

November 12 2018

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Presidential Cycle today?

Eoin Treacy's view

I’ve been thinking a lot recently about where we are in the stock market cycle and I’m not alone in that. After a significant loss of momentum this year and two aggressive stabs on the downside there are a lot of people asking questions about the market’s condition.
 
The bond market has been grudgingly nudging yields higher for the last few years as the Fed has persisted in raising rates. At 2.92% right now that is pricing an average of 2 and a bit more interest rate hikes by November 2020. Since the next one is due in a month that’s not a terribly ambitious forecast which suggests fixed income investors do not believe the Fed can continue indefinitely on this current path. It occurred to me over the weekend that something which has not gotten a lot of mention recently is the US Presidential Cycle.

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