Precious metals: Has a cyclical recovery commenced or is this another false start?
David Fuller's view Evidence in favour
of the former is slowly building and most of gold's best moves to the upside
have been launched in August
and September. However, gold has also encountered selling pressure at this
time of year on two previous occasions - August 2008 and the all-time numerical
high to date occurred in August and September 2011.
We will not have definitive evidence for the next significant move, one way or another, until gold and its sister precious metals either break beneath their lows of the last few months, or sustain breaks up out of their current trading ranges and establish medium-term uptrends.
Meanwhile, recent developments are encouraging. Gold (weekly & daily) shows rising lows since May, following its successful test of last year's floors. However, it needs to break above lateral trading within its present range in a decisive manner and maintain the gain. Silver (weekly & daily) shows rising lows since late June, when it successfully tested its 2011 floor, and it has seen another upward dynamic today, taking out some lateral resistance in the process. It now needs to maintain and extend this move, and sustain a break above the early-June high near $30. Platinum (weekly & daily) has rebounded from its range lows to retest its June and July highs near $1500. A sustained break above that hurdle is now required to provide evidence of recovery scope beyond temporary short covering in response to labour unrest in South Africa. Palladium (weekly & daily) followed Platinum higher on Friday. It needs to hold most of these gains during a consolidation and then push above the June rally high near $643.
There are plenty of fundamental reasons for another advance in precious metals as Fullermoney has frequently discussed, not least in the Audios. For an authoritative report on gold, I have seen none better than Ronald-Peter Stöferle's In GOLD we TRUST, which I also posted on Friday 20th July. If you have not seen it or wish to review this blockbuster (120-page) report, it is just as relevant today.