PPR Confident of Growth in 2012 After 2011 Beats Estimates
Comment of the Day

February 16 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

PPR Confident of Growth in 2012 After 2011 Beats Estimates

This article by Andrew Roberts for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Gucci, its biggest luxury brand, performed worse than the rest of the unit, rising 14 percent in the fourth quarter. Sales in the luxury division, which also includes the Bottega Veneta and Balenciaga brands, rose 22 percent. Growth at the division was slightly better than that in January, deputy Chief Executive Officer Jean-Francois Palus said on a call with reporters.

The market for high-end goods is showing a “strong dynamic,” Palus said, echoing comments by LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA, the world's largest luxury maker, and Florence, Italy-based Salvatore Ferragamo SpA. Gucci will open 43 stores this year, Bottega will open 22 and Yves Saint Laurent will open 15.

“In the uncertain economic climate of early 2012, the core strengths underpinning PPR's robust 2011 results will continue to propel our performance this year,” Chief Executive Officer Francois-Henri Pinault said in the statement. “PPR is confident that 2012 will be another year of sustained revenue growth and improvements in our operating and financial performances.”

The sale process for Redcats is continuing and PPR is in talks with several private-equity buyers for the unit, deputy Chief Executive Officer Jean-Francois Palus said on a call with reporters. The suitors are working on financing. Potential acquirers for Fnac Italy are industrial, with no private-equity interest in the business, he said.

PPR is widening its executive committee to include Gucci CEO Patrizio di Marco, Bottega CEO Marco Bizzarri, Puma CEO Franz Koch and recently appointed Chief Financial Officer Jean- Marc Duplaix, Palus said. The move will enable the company to be more integrated and closer to its brands, he said. PPR will also announce a human resources director this morning, he said.

PPR said it will pay an unchanged dividend of 3.5 euros a share for 2011, payable on May 7.

Eoin Treacy's view The luxury brands sector has become emblematic of the emergence of a wealthy Asian consumer class. Most major brands are expanding aggressively and Asia represents their fastest growth markets. As with the emergence of a new bourgeoisie throughout history, competition increases for items of limited supply and high value that help delineate the new arrivals from those less financially privileged. Luxury goods manufacturers target this demand.

While the luxury brands sector exhibited a high degree of commonality until 2010, there has been more variability in performance evident since early 2011. (Also see Comment of the Day on January 4th 2012).

Among the leaders, Ralph Lauren, Coach, Remy Cointreau and Luxottica Group have rallied particularly impressively over the last six weeks. They are now all overextended in the short-term and the risk of at least a pullback and consolidation has increased substantially. Essilor International and Hermes are also hitting new highs but are less overextended.

Christian Dior, Swatch Group, LVMH, PPR, BMW, Hugo Boss, Compagnie Financiere Richemont and Mulberry have also rallied impressively to test their earlier highs. They are all also overbought in the short-term and the potential for at least a pause in the current region has increased. Burberry has also rallied well but has lagged the above shares in terms of relative performance.

Nordstrom has been considerably less volatile than the above shares. It has been ranging with a broadly upward bias since early 2011 and is currently testing the upper boundary. A sustained move below $47 would be required to question potential for a successful upward break. Saks Inc. underperformed but has held a progression of higher reaction lows since August and a sustained move below $9 would be required to check potential for continued higher to lateral ranging.

Tiffany continues to range mostly above $60 but needs to do better than that to suggest a return to medium-term demand dominance. TODs has rallied back to test the October high but will need to sustain a move above the MA currently near $72 to suggest a return to medium-term demand dominance.

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