Pound Reaches 2016 Peak as Traders Await U.K. Referendum Result
Comment of the Day

June 23 2016

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Pound Reaches 2016 Peak as Traders Await U.K. Referendum Result

This article by Lukanyo Mnyanda and Netty Ismail for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

The pound climbed to the strongest level this year as British voters cast their ballots in a referendum on the nation’s European Union membership.

A gauge of sterling advanced for a second day, while the currency headed for its best week since 2009 against the dollar as two polls conducted before Thursday showed a lead for the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union.

Still, a measure of implied overnight price swings versus the dollar climbed to the highest level on record, as traders sought protection from outsized price swings. Voting began at 7 a.m. London time and ends at 10 p.m.

The pound has acted as a barometer of sentiment since the start of the campaign in February, rising or falling depending on which side of the debate was gaining momentum. Sterling has climbed about 8 percent since sliding to a seven-year low of $1.3836 on Feb. 29, about a week after the date of the vote was announced, and has rallied from as low as $1.4013 last week.

Eoin Treacy's view

The Pound hit a medium-term peak near $1.72 in 2014 and was trading closer to $1.57 when the Conservatives won the election last year. It then trended lower for the remainder of the year before finding support in the region of $1.40 which also represents the lower side of a long-term range. 

With a consensus now expecting the Remain campaign to prevail, the Pound has traded up almost 10¢ this week to break back above the 200-day MA for the first time this year. However a better test of renewed demand dominance will be to what extent it can hold the gain next week once the result is known.

The FTSE-100 has also bounced rather emphatically this week and will need to sustain a move above 6500 to confirm a return to demand dominance beyond the short-term. 

UK Gilt yields continue to unwind the short-term overextension relative the trend mean but a sustained move above 1.55% will be required to signal more than temporary supply dominance. 

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