Europe Stocks Extend Longest Losing Streak of 2015 Amid DAX Rout
Comment of the Day

June 09 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

Europe Stocks Extend Longest Losing Streak of 2015 Amid DAX Rout

Here is the opening of this topical article from Bloomberg:

A slump in German equities helped send European stocks down for a sixth day.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.4 percent to 383.87 at the close of trading in London, earlier losing as much as 1.4 percent. Germany’s DAX Index declined 0.6 percent after entering a correction on Monday. It’s dropped 11 percent from its April peak.

Stocks have fallen in past days as Greece struggles to strike a debt deal after months of talks. Creditors are growing increasingly frustrated with the country’s government after it rejected the terms of an aid package again last week and deferred a payment due to the International Monetary Fund. Greece pulled back on budget concessions to its creditors in new proposals Tuesday.

“People are more focused about macro like Greece,” said John Plassard, vice president at Mirabaud Securities LLP in Geneva. “We may come into a phase where we get a bit of a relief in this stressed market. The risk-reward is now more favorable for an entry point in the Europe equity market.”

The Stoxx 600 extended its lowest level since February and has lost 4.2 percent in six days. A technical analysis signal shows the gauge is close to being oversold, with the relative strength index near 30. Last time it reached that level, in December, the index was about to start its biggest first-quarter rally since 1998.

David Fuller's view

The German DAX Index has retraced approximately half of its explosive advance since European Central Bank President Mario Draghi saw off opposition (ironically, mainly from Germany) and announced his €1.1 trillion quantitative easing programme in January. 

This correction, the biggest since mid-2014, has reversed the overbought condition seen in April and returned to the trend mean, represented by the 200-day (40-week) moving average.  While uncertainty over Greece and its unresolved crisis has deterred buyers and could still cause a temporary overshoot, the problem is well known and therefore largely discounted.  Moreover, the ECB’s QE will continue over the lengthy medium term, cushioning downside risk.  The first clear upward dynamic evident on the DAX chart will signal that buyers are returning.  

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