Email of the day 1
Comment of the Day

May 12 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day 1

On bonds and stock markets:

“Well, I took the warning and recently sold all my corporate bond funds. They were useful for income but I feel it is safer to forgo that now and lock in the capital gains.
I read that Warren Buffett said he would short 20- or 30-year bonds if he had a suitable vehicle (for the scale he requires). 
If/ when long rates rise, that should steepen the yield curve (if short rates rise less or not at all). A steeper yield curve is usually positive for equities as banks make higher profits from loans, and higher lending drives industrial expansion and consumer spending. And the money moving out of bonds has to go somewhere: with commodities largely flat at the moment the cash could go into equities, driving the market higher still. Do you agree? Commodities are late movers in bull markets so we may see them also take off at some point. It all has to end sometime of course, but like you I think we equity investors can enjoy it for a while yet.”

David Fuller's view

Well done and well said. 

Warren Buffett’s comment on bonds was certainly timely, not to mention Janet Yellen’s.  The yield curve has begun to steepen as the economy recovers and investors will gradually shift some capital currently in fixed interest investments to stock markets, just as they have always done.  On a very short-term basis sharp rises in bond yields can unsettle stock markets, as we have seen recently.  I think commodity markets (CCI & CRY) are bottoming out, although the evidence is tentative to date.  As they eventually surge higher this should coincide with the ending of stock market bull trends, followed by temporary cyclical bear market corrections of a few months duration.  

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