In the tropical Pacific Ocean, scientists operate a network of buoys that measure temperature, currents and winds. The data - and other information from satellites and meteorological observations - is fed into complex computer models designed to predict an El Nino. However, the models cannot predict the precise intensity or duration of an El Nino, or the areas likely to be affected. Researchers are trying to improve their models to give more advance notice.

David Fuller's view

I think what the BBC is most worried about is the political El Nino it is about to receive from the new Conservative Government for what it considers to be political bias during the recent election.