Cameron Might Just Win After All, Bookmakers Say on Eve of Vote
Comment of the Day

May 06 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

Cameron Might Just Win After All, Bookmakers Say on Eve of Vote

Here is the opening of this topical report by Bloomberg:

Ed Miliband might want to hold off measuring for curtains in No. 10 Downing Street just yet as Conservative incumbent David Cameron stages a comeback in the betting market on the eve of the election.

William Hill Plc, the biggest U.K. bookmaker, gives Labour leader Miliband and Cameron the same chance to be prime minister, with the odds on both at 10-11, meaning a successful 11 pound ($16.70) bet wins 10 pounds. Last month, William Hill had Miliband as favorite, as did Betfair, which now gives both an even shot.

Opinion polls indicate neither Cameron nor Miliband will win enough seats tomorrow to govern the U.K. without the support of smaller parties. Odds show the most likely next government is a Labour minority, given the Scottish National Party has offered to support Miliband. Yet the Conservatives will win the most seats and votes, odds show.

David Fuller's view

I think Cameron needs at least 15 more seats than Miliband, taking him over 300, to be sure of forming the next government.  Polls are not reflecting this but they can be inaccurate.  Betting shops are a fraction closer, as are the UK’s financial markets which have remained stable.

Conservatives underestimated Miliband’s energy for the campaign and this could be costly.  Also, Conservatives lost the word game.  All leftwing types now describe the most socialist policies as ‘progressive’.   Conservatives were branded as the ‘austerity’ party and until the last few days only George Osborne seemed to talk about responsible governance. 

I found it a depressing campaign, woefully short of leadership, not to mention humour with the exception of Boris Johnson who will surely be the next leader of the Conservative Party.      

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