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May 05 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

Interesting charts of the day

Price charts show the money flows

The US 30-Yr Treasury Bond Yield (weekly 5Y & weekly 10Y) saw a climactic downward acceleration to its low at 2.2190% on 30^th January. This was followed immediately by a bullish upward dynamic. Moreover, the yield failed to maintain its break beneath the 2008 and 2012 lows. This looks like a V-bottom with right-hand extension base formation, as taught at The Chart Seminar. The yield has now pushed above its March high and also the 200-day (40-week) MA, indicating further recovery scope over the medium to longer term.

China Shanghai A-Shares (daily & weekly) show a loss of upside momentum and clear downward dynamic today, suggesting that a probable medium-term consolidation has commenced in response to the recent, extended overbought condition.

The Dollar Index (daily & weekly) has paused near the first region of potential support and is temporarily oversold. However, without an upward dynamic there is little evidence that demand is regaining the upper hand.

Brent Crude Oil (daily & weekly) continues to recover from the region of its 2008/9 base formation and has the potential to test, at least the 200-day (40-week) MA which is still declining.

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