Cheap Oil Winners and Losers in One Giant Map
Comment of the Day

April 15 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

Cheap Oil Winners and Losers in One Giant Map

The world's most innovative regions just got a $900 billion-a-year stimulus package.

With oil prices still down about 50 percent since June, the global economy is benefitting. The IMF estimated in December that the price crash could boost GDP worldwide by 0.7 percent. But those benefits aren't shared equally.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) estimated some of the biggest winners and losers in the map above. Net oil importers like the U.S., Europe, and Asia are getting a nearly $900 billion economic stimulus from cheaper oil prices. The Middle East and Russia are getting stuck with the bill.

"I believe we are in an era of lower oil prices in the medium term and also in the longer term," Michael Liebreich, founder of BNEF, said in a presentation at the group's annual summit on Tuesday. "We have cheap oil, cheap gas, cheap renewables. We are definitely in an age where supply is not constrained."

Note: The calculations for the map are based on a $5 drop in natural gas price and $50 drop in oil price. The estimates use import/export volumes from 2011 to 2013, which would exclude the expansion in U.S. oil since then.  

David Fuller's view

Developing Asia Pacific has the biggest winners, led by China and India.  Europe is next, Norway excepted.  The US does benefit but probably not by the $180bn shown, because America’s shale industry is now at least temporarily in retreat.   

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