Email of the day
Comment of the Day

April 14 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day

On the Euro and possible ‘Grexit’:

“Something that concerns all of us with exposure to other countries other than our own is: does the euro go up or down if Greece leaves the eurozone. Eoin mentioned some while back that it might rise. Yet one reads many other places that it might drop sharply.

"Could you or Eoin please explain the possibilities and likelihoods?”

David Fuller's view

The Euro obviously does not trade on its own, as it is priced against other currencies which will variously be in or out of favour.  Nevertheless, while ‘Grexit’ would create some temporary uncertainty, we do not think that it would drop sharply.  In fact, it would most likely rise.

This is most easily explained by considering what would happen if all the Southern European economies left the Euro?  The single currency would be stronger without its weaker components.    

Meanwhile, QE will keep the Euro soft but we would not have to worry about another sharp drop unless Germany decided to leave, which is highly unlikely.

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