Global Ambition of China: It is Time for the World to Adjust
Comment of the Day

March 30 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

Global Ambition of China: It is Time for the World to Adjust

What’s the longest bridge in the world? It’s not San Francisco’s Golden Gate, or Saudi Arabia’s King Fahd Causeway (as a friend insisted when I asked him) or even one of those really long “over the horizon” ones in Scandinavia.

The world’s longest bridge in the world – by far – is the Danyang-Kunshan Grand Bridge on the Beijing-to-Shanghai high-speed rail link. Stretching across the Yangtze delta, and completed in 2010, the Danyang-Kunshan is no less than 102 miles long. That’s over 29 times the length of Bromford Viaduct near Birmingham, the UK’s longest bridge. And it’s 116 times longer than the Humber Bridge, our widest single-span crossing.

The world’s second-longest bridge is also in China. The Tianjin Grand stretches over 70 miles long, part of the Beijing-to-Shanghai rail link and also completed in 2010. The third-longest bridge is Chinese too. But the Weinan Weihe Grand Bridge is on the Zhengzhou-Xi’an railway and spans just under 50 miles.

No less than nine of the world’s 12 longest bridges are in China, all of them built over the last decade or so. The longest bridge in America, the 24-mile Lake Pontchartrain Causeway in Louisiana, was opened in 1956.

It’s easy to cite superlatives about China’s development. But the pace at which the People’s Republic is now building bridges, and the record-smashing scale of its ambition, is quite astonishing.

Since adopting market-based reforms in the late-1970s, China has grown on average by 9.8pc a year, compared with 2.5pc in America. Back in 1980, the economy was just one 10th that of the US – and still just half, as recently as 2004.

Last October, though, the International Monetary Fund quietly published estimates showing China’s annual GDP at $17.6 trillion (£11.8 trillion), compared with $17.4 trillion in America.

The US remains far richer per head, of course, with the average American commanding an income four times that of their Chinese counterpart. And the IMF’s estimates were on a “purchasing power parity” basis, including cross-border variations in living costs. Despite these qualifications, the symbolism remains enormous. While America had been the world’s largest economy since 1872, when it overtook Britain, the US no longer holds an unequivocal claim to top spot.

It’s fashionable to talk down China.

Certainly, its Communist leaders are grappling with a sagging property market, unsteady exports and cooling domestic investment. China expanded by 7.4pc in 2014, the slowest rate for 24 years. Growth this year could fall below 7pc, amidst rising labour costs.

Yet the growth gulf between China and the West remains vast. Despite enormous “recovery” fanfare, America grew just 2.4pc during the last quarter, only a touch above the sluggish six-year average since the 2008 collapse. The eurozone remains close to recession. And while UK growth could reach 3pc this year, our expansion is far too reliant on rising personal and government debt.

As the Chinese economy keeps out-pacing the West, the country commands ever more geopolitical power – and I’d highlight three very different illustrations of this. Just before his recent Budget, George Osborne, the Chancellor, announced that the UK will become a founder member of the Asian Infrastructure Development Bank (AIIB) – a China-led financial institution that could one day rival the World Bank. This drew an extremely barbed response from the US, with a White House official accusing Britain of “constantly accommodating” China.

David Fuller's view

Here is a PDF of The Telegraph's article.

You have probably seen more bearish articles and comments on China than any other market in the last few years.  This was partly due to the China’s significant monetary squeeze commencing in August 2009, after a global-leading stock market recovery from the 2008 lows, in response to the government’s aggressive monetary reflation. 

However, the problem was not the stock market.  It was China’s property market which was clearly forming another bubble.  Consequently, the government reversed its expansionary monetary policy with a lengthy squeeze, which did not end until the second half of 2014.  Subsequently, the Shanghai A-Share Index shown above has risen 85% in less than nine months, with the help of another reflationary effort.  

China is definitely somewhat frightening, being a command economy, which is now a leading military power second only to the USA.  Moreover, China’s GDP growth rate has been the fastest that the world has seen since Deng Xiaoping, influenced by Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew, switched to a market-based command economy in the late 1970s.

That GDP growth is slower today, but probably not much less than 6% per annum, which is certainly a lot stronger than what we are seeing from developed economies.  Moreover, with a monetary reflation underway, China’s growth rate is likely to increase once again.  

This view is certainly at odds with what we have heard from some influential US hedge fund managers over the last few years.  However, they have subsequently been blown out of the water by China’s stock market recovery.  Moreover, China’s current leader, Xi Jinping, has even more power than Deng Xiaoping.  Interestingly, he has been leading a major crackdown on corruption, which is inevitably controversial but undoubtedly overdue.  If Xi Jinping is even-handed in targeting clear examples of corruption rather than just political enemies, these moves may be viewed as in the public’s interest.  

 

Meanwhile, China’s stock market continues to look impressive and is being led higher by favourable monetary policy.  My main participation is via the sterling denominated JPMorgan Chinese Investment Trust (JMC LN), which is the main instrument that I use for my investment in China.  US investors have a similar instrument in the China Fund (CHN US).  These are investments trusts (closed-end funds) both selling at discounts to net asset value of just over 9%, according to Bloomberg.

(See also my comments on China last Friday and Eoin’s review below.) 

 

Back to top

You need to be logged in to comment.

New members registration