Stock Markets Rally, Mirror Gains of Global Markets Buoyed by Chinese Stimulus
Comment of the Day

March 30 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

Stock Markets Rally, Mirror Gains of Global Markets Buoyed by Chinese Stimulus

Here is the opening of this informative article from The Economic Times, commenting on India:

MUMBAI: Stock markets surged on Monday, ending an eight-day run of losses, mirroring gains in global markets buoyed by expectations of a Chinese stimulus. Thin volumes ahead of the financial year-end and holidays later this week also contributed to the rebound as fund managers and traders needed very little firepower to prop up prices. Some aggressive purchases bymutual funds to lift net asset values fuelled a rise in mid and small-cap stocks. 

The BSE Sensex rose 1.88 per cent to end at 27,975 points on Monday, its biggest single-day gain in about two-and-a-half months. The NSE Nifty rose 1.81 per cent to end the day at 8,492 points. 

Bank shares were among top gainers after the Reserve Bank of India relaxed provisioning rules against bad loans. 

Brokers are a lot more optimistic about market prospects in the new financial year that starts April 1. 

"Let this financial year end. Market valuations are likely to become attractive. We may have more positive triggers going forward," said Nirmal Jain, chairman of IIFL. 
Apoll of 26 market participants by ET conducted over the weekend showed the Sensex expected to gain between 9 per cent and 27 per cent during the rest of 2015. Most of those surveyed — fund managers and brokers — expect large-caps to be outperformers. 

David Fuller's view

India’s Sensex Index (weekly & daily) saw its best gains today since the high just above 30,000 on March 4th.  Moreover this came from a deeply oversold position after the Index has all but touched potential support from its rising 200-day moving average.

This indicates a low of at least near-term significance and recovery potential would be reaffirmed by further gains at tomorrow’s close.  The only concern is the larger correction seen recently, which has eroded uptrend consistency characteristics.  Consequently, it may take a little longer before the overall upward trend is reaffirmed by a sustained break above the psychological 30,000 level.  Nevertheless, India remains one of my favourite markets for the longer term, not least because of the more effective governance we are seeing from Narendra Modi’s team.  

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